“Coronavirus has hit all countries in the world hard, posing a threat to the health of citizens and to the economic growth of individual states. To date, the most affected by the pandemic are the United States which, in addition to the growing number of victims, almost 94 thousand, and that of positive cases, which has exceeded the 1.5 million threshold, are facing internal conflicts, a rising unemployment rate and escalating trade tensions with Beijing.
Public opinion and politics remain divided on the measures to be taken to restart, with President Donald Trump which praises the reopening tout court, with or without vaccine.
To be the behaviors that the individual States are also asymmetrical, from East to West, have adopted for the restart.
The data relating to the infection are not comforting, especially in the state of New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic, where Governor Andrew Cuomo extended the order to stay at home for all areas that did not meet the criteria to begin reopening activities to 13 June.
In addition to the internal threat, the United States is surrounded by new outbreaks of South America, in particular Mexico and Brazil, which in these days are experiencing a marked surge in the contagion curve.
A recent article from the NY Times has exposed a dossier, in which it appears that, in America, i daily coronavirus deaths would be around 3,000 and it is claimed that the reopening measures authorized by President Trump are too premature.
NYT and Cnn have always been at odds with Washington’s number one for his brazen and careless attitude in many delicate situations. Due to a confused political climate, the poorest sections of the population suffer the consequences of the pandemic.
The numbers on the unemployment they are very worrying: such negative data on the US labor market could not be seen since the great depression of the 29 ‘, with unemployment hovering around 14 percent. In fact, unemployment claims in the States are increasing by another 3 million for a total of 36 million in 8 weeks. A tragic fact that measures the fragility of the American labor market.
To worry are also the severe trade conflicts between Washington and Beijing. In fact, these days, the White House has declared that it has documents, not revealed, that would demonstrate that the virus was created in a Wuhan laboratory.
The Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who is the spokesman for this political campaign against the country of the dragon, whose press has called him a “poisonous liar”.
In response, anti-American tones rekindled from Beijing, with reports that instead testify that the virus would have been imported from the USA, during the December military Olympics, held in Wuhan. The cold war started again at full speed after a 3-month truce.
China is now in an advantageous position compared to the USA, given the “rebound” and the delay in the fight against the pandemic, the economic and social situation which seems to be getting worse and the November elections approaching.
Trump, who cannot focus on the successes of the American economy, is shifting the focus of his election campaign against China, encouraged by the results and data of a study by the Pew Research Center which shows how 66% of Americans have a bad perception of China.
The month of May began with measures by the American administration to limit the export of technological products to China, as well as with the request to ban China Telecom from the country, in conjunction with news that certainly did not mitigate the resentment. and the heaviness of the interventions: for the first time, China overtook the USA in the number of applications for international patents in the tech field, driven by Huawei, winning the comparison for 58,990 against 57,840 (WIPO data).
The intervention against Huawei, leader in 5G, is in pole position with the attempt to cut the Chinese giant out of the supply chain. This measure could seriously hurt Beijing’s technology sector. In this moment of crisis, both governments are pushing for the tightening of nationalist positions, reducing their structural interdependence.
On the internal front, the Washington interventions to support the country, launched these days by the Trump administration in close agreement with the Fed, have huge proportions. The US Qe has the size equal to 66% of the Italian GDP and, overall, the sum of all the economic interventions implemented so far has been greater than 10% of the public debt of our country.
In recent days Jerome Powell, the Fed’s number one, explicitly mentioned the worst economic crisis since ’29, stating that there will be interventions by the American Central Bank in favor of families and businesses.
The downward estimates on the trend of World GDP of Goldman Sachs they seem, however, to endorse Powell’s words. The recovery of the world economy could have more than an ‘U’ shape, an ‘L’ shape.
We will have to wait and see the developments between now and the end of the year; surely the definitive turning point will come when there is a vaccine, but until then it will be necessary to live with the virus, trying to limit the damage in all sectors and hoping for intelligence, judgment and intervention by world leaders and all citizens”.
(GD – www.ftaonline.com)