Equity markets continue to push forward, driven in particular by Wall Street. Is there room for further ascents in the short term?
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones is still very strong, traveling near the highs of the period just under 25,000 points.
Very little is needed to jump even over this last barrier, given the strong and too much health and economic negativity, however attenuated by always massive injections of real liquidity placed on the markets.
Very little is needed for Trump’s appetite for re-election. A slowdown in the number of deaths, now over 100,000, or a stabilization of unemployment benefits, now at 3 million, will be enough to bring more euphoria on the markets, infecting both the Dow Jones, than the Nasdaq and the S & P500.
Of course this will not last until the US presidential election in November and it is difficult to choose whether it is better to move the election appointment to next year or to keep it in 2020 as scheduled.
For the moment we expect in the short for the Dow Jones an overcoming by degrees of 24.500 / 25.000 points up to area 25.500, and of 3.000 / 3.050 points up to 3.100 level of the S & P500.
This will have short-term health effects especially for the Dax and a little less for the CAC40.
At Piazza Affari the Ftse Mib is trying to move away from 17,000 points. What are the possible scenarios in the short term?
At Piazza Affari yesterday the volumes were all in all good and above average, considering the closure of the London Stock Exchange for holidays and Wall Street, notoriously lavish with even heavy interventions on our price lists.
The Ftse Mib yesterday closed the session with a closing on the highs in view of 17.800 points, preparatory to reaching 18.200 / 18.300 points, not considering the psychological threshold of 18.000.
This would only raise the center of gravity from the 17,000 points of the last month and it is not a trivial matter anyway.
Are there any titles you are looking at with more interest than others at Piazza Affari?
I would like to point out the big recovery of FCA towards € 7.70, while UnipolSai returned to the maximum of the period in the area of € 2, after having detached a dividend of € 0.16.
EL.EN. is approaching 20 euros, a threshold already touched in recent weeks and to be kept under control.
Valsoia is also recovering, with exchanges on the rise, and a shot of over 5% recapturing the 11 euros.
For us, the title is a decided buy up to 12.50 euros, on the highest of the last 12 months, and then accumulation buy for the medium-long term in the 15 / 15.50 euro area, reached in 2018 net of dividends.
Banco BPM remains nailed to historic lows, while Ubi Banca’s setting appears better. What can you tell us about these two titles?
Keeping in mind our repulsion simply to indiscriminately advise bank and financial securities in general, however, we give our vision on the subject.
Given that in any case it is preferable to stay on the first or at most the second of any stock sector, and not only banking and financial, we will avoid buying Ubi Banca to profit on the conversion relationships with Intesa Sanpaolo, already very much sacrificed in itself.
We will therefore position ourselves directly on Intesa Sanpaolo, which seems to have found a base between just under 1.40 euros and just over 1.45 euros.
The title will be held for the substantial dividends that will come, including that of the year 2019 postponed to next autumn.
For Banco BPM, which has almost become a stock penny (in the US, the securities are quoted below a dollar) and perhaps ready to end Banca Carige, Banca MPS and Creval to the detriment of the minor shareholders themselves.
We would be completely out of Banco BPM and so our subscribers, even if the price, at 1 euro, could attract many naive and greedy speculators of the last hour.
What can you tell us about the recent performance of FinecoBank and Azimut and what indications can you give us for both?
The two themes of savings managed by you are far better than traditional banking, as a medium-long term destiny, but in the short term they are too expensive to have important developments, considering the psychological braking logic of the last three months, due to the significant future uncertainties about the possibility of saving primarily.
Better to abstain, but if you really want to intervene it will be better Azeco’s FinecoBank, when it will be time to return.
The euro-dollar retraced after the 1.10 area test, while the dollar-yen remained below the 108 level. What can you tell us about these two crosses?
We must necessarily repeat ourselves on what has been said at least in the last 12 months.
We see the euro-dollar always between 1.0750 and 1.1050, while the dollar-yen conversely should move between 106.5 and 109.5.
The dollar-yen, however, is more controlled, with the usual careful Bank of Japan.