The Ftse Mib has just returned from three upward sessions that have seen it return to a short distance from 18,000. Is there room for further positive developments in the short term?
There are different pressures for the stock indexes: on the one hand, as in the case of the USA, the huge quantities of liquidity injected or promised in any case, push upwards, even in the presence of a collapse in profits.
On the other hand, we find the uncertainties related to the recovery that revive downward trends.
The FTSE Mib reflects these two thrusts in the range in which it has been imprisoned for two months, or 16,500-18,000 points, and any attempt to break is immediately rejected at least for the moment.
I would therefore wait for a decisive closure of the Ftse Mib out of the range to commit to one of the two sides: a breakout would have the target area of 19.500-20.000, while a breakdown would target the recent lows in the 14,000 area and then those of 2012 at 12,000 .
Bper Banca yesterday scored a double-digit rally followed by Mediobanca which gained over 5%. What can you tell us about these two titles?
The movement of BPER Banca is very interesting because in the daily it showed a new divergent minimum, that is, with less “strong” momentum indicators compared to the March minimum.
The reaction could quickly bring it to € 2.5, and if the stock continues, it could signal a trend reversal.
On the contrary, Mediobanca does not seem to have concluded the long-term bearish movement, but an attempt to overcome the 6 euro area is possible, with possible extension to close the gap at 7 euro before resuming the trend.
What can you tell us about the recent movements of two industrialists like FCA and Leonardo and what strategies can you suggest for both?
In the medium term, both stocks seem not to have concluded bearish movements, while the short-term structure is less clear.
FCA needed a gap to overcome resistance in the 7.80 euro area, a level which therefore remains significant to maintain the upward trend, with 8.5 and 9.10 euros as possible target areas.
Leonardo, on the other hand, encounters resistance at € 6.55-6.89, while losing € 5.50 would be a first sign of recovery of the bearish trend towards the lows.
In light of oil prices, what strategies can you suggest for two oil sector stocks like ENI and Saipem?
For ENI, I believe that the 9.20-9.30 euro area could represent a strong resistance, a key area to understand if the closing of the 10.12 euro gap represents a medium-term maximum and the security is set to return to the 6 euro .
A first signal in this direction would be sent by ENI with the loss of 7.9 euro area.
Saipem still shows weakness, maintaining a very narrow range: below 2.08 euros the most likely target would be towards the 1.6 euros area, while on the upside above 2.4 euros an extension up to 2.8 euros would be possible to close the early March gap.
What are the titles that you are following more closely at this stage and which do you recommend looking at now?
I must admit that it is a very unclear phase, considering the two thrusts I was talking about initially.
Whenever the index seemed to be on the way to a breakdown, it was avoided with strong reversals, which however also ran out.
Even the charts of many stocks leave the door open in one direction and the other, so I would prefer to see a convinced break in the range of the last two months before committing myself.
In periods of uncertainty such as this advice to limit yourself to living the day with intraday operations.