Coronavirus, the collapse of GDP is even worse than estimates. Istat: -5.3% in the first quarter, drop in private consumption contributes by -4%


A collapse even worse than the preliminary estimate released by theIstat a month ago: in the first quarter of 2020 the Pil Italy decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous quarter and of 5.4% compared to the same period of 2019. The Institute of Statistics has in fact revised the data released on April 30, which gave the Gross Domestic Product down by 4.7% on a cyclical basis of 4.8% in the annual comparison. Already those data represented a negative record: never since the first quarter of 1995, or since the start of the reconstructed time series, there has been such a heavy decline. “The full estimate of the quarterly income statements confirms the exceptional scope of the decrease in GDP in the first quarter, “comments Istat, underlining the effects ofCoronavirus emergency economy.

The impact of Covid has in fact affected “all the main aggregates of the domestic demand“Which are down on the last quarter of 2019,” with a drop in the 5.1% of national final consumption and of8.1% from investments fixed gross “. The imports and the exports they decreased by 6.2% and 8% respectively. Domestic demand excluding inventories contributed to -5.5 percentage points to the contraction of the GDP: -4% the consumption of families and private social institutions, -1.5% gross fixed capital formation is -0.1% the expenditure of Public Administrations (PA). “It was above all that that dragged the fall of the GDP domestic demand“, Istat underlines,” the contribution of private consumption has been strongly negative“.

By contrast, the change in stocks contributed positively to the change in GDP for 1 percentage point, while the contribution of the net foreign demand was equal to -0.8 percentage points. There are negative economic trends in value added in all the main ones production sectors, with agriculture is services decreased by 1.9% and 4.4% respectively. The contraction of theindustry, which records a drop in the added value of8.1%.

“The contraction in production was matched by a sharp reduction in the input of work in terms of both hours worked and full-time units of work “, Istat notes in the comment to the data on the GDP of the first quarter.
“In a context of substantially stable job positions”, due to blocking of layoffs introduced by the government with the Cura Italia decree and then extended with the relaunch decree, the hours worked have registered a decrease of 4.4%. This result, highlights Istat, is due to a drop in the 2.4% dell ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing, of 6.7% of the industry strictly speaking and del 7.6% of the buildings, while I services they record a reduction of 3.8%. Work units decreased in total by 5.2% due to a generalized drop in all sectors.

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