Thousands of private tests on coronavirus in Lombardy, but the Region does not use them to measure the spread of the epidemic
Gimbe’s independent analysis, relating to Phase 2 in the various regions, uses two indicators parameterized to the resident population: the incidence of new cases and the number of “diagnostic” swabs, excluding those performed to confirm virological healing or for the need for repeat the test. In particular, the percentage of positive diagnostic swabs is higher than the national average (2.4%) in 5 regions: significantly in Lombardy (6%) and Liguria (5.8%) and to a lesser extent in Piedmont (3, 8%) Puglia (3.7%) and Emilia-Romagna (2.7%).
Lombardy, also this week at “low risk”
As for diagnostic swabs per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to the national average (1,343), only Valle d’Aosta (4,076) and the Autonomous Province of Trento (4,038) stand out. In the three regions with a high incidence of new cases, the propensity to execute tampons remains slightly above the national average both in Piedmont (1,675) and in Lombardy (1,608), while in Liguria (1,319) it is slightly below . As for the incidence of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to the national average (32), it is clearly higher in Lombardy (96), Liguria (76) and Piedmont (63). If the Molise data (44) is not of concern because it is linked to a recent outbreak already identified and limited, that of Emilia-Romagna (33) could be underestimated by the number of diagnostic swabs (1,202 per 100,000 inhabitants) well below the national average (1,343).
The silent massacre of the RSA
The foundation emphasizes that “the data analyzed reflect almost entirely the reopenings of May 4, but not the much larger ones of May 18 which can be assessed in the period 1-14 June, taking into account an average of 5 days of incubation of the virus and 9-10 days to get the results of the swab. “So, 23 days after the loosening of the lockdown, the Gimbe Foundation “shows that the contagion curve is not adequately under control in Lombardy, Liguria and Piedmont: in these Regions there is the highest percentage of positive diagnostic swabs, the greatest increase of new cases, compared to a limited aptitude for the execution of diagnostic swabs. In Emilia-Romagna, an even lower propensity could distort the number of new cases downwards “.
Covid, deaths collapse, but the virus circulates
“The government – commented Cartabellotta – following the evaluations of the Technical-Scientific Committee will face three possible scenarios: the first, more risky, of reopening mobility throughout the national territory, accepting the eventual decision of the Southern Regions to activate the quarantine for those arriving from areas of greatest contagion; the second, a reasonable compromise, to maintain the limitations only in the three regions most at risk, with the option to allow mobility between them; the third, more prudent, to prolong the total blockade of interregional mobility, without prejudice to the due exceptions currently in force “.
Piedmont Crisis Unit: “The double negative buffer is not enough to consider yourself healed”
But it is a clash with the Lombardy Region. “Very serious, offensive and above all not true.” So Pirellone counterattacks after the statements by Cartabellotta according to which “the official data on the spread of the virus in Lombardy, fundamental for evaluating the reopening of the borders, are probably underestimated”. Would some Regions, and in particular Lombardy, “adjust” the contagion data so as not to incur new closures? “There is a reasonable suspicion that it is so – explains Cartabellotta on Radio 24 – that the Regions adjust the data so as not to be stopped. In Lombardy too many oddities occurred on the data, discharged subjects who were communicated as healed, the delay in transmission of data, and recounts are much more frequent in phase 2. As if there was a need to keep the diagnosed cases below a certain level “.
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The Lombardy Region first responded with a note through which it denies what the foundation has claimed, then through its legal department has decided to file a lawsuit against Gimbe and its president Cartabellotta. “An inevitable act, ours – reads – after what was stated by the president of the foundation who, speaking of the health data of Lombardy, declared, among other things, that ‘they also combine the magic of numbers’. Intolerable and lackluster accusations of every foundation for which the president of Gimbe will have to answer personally. Our data, as per protocol shared by all the Regions, are transmitted daily and with the utmost transparency to the Higher Institute of Health “. And in this regard, the Region in a previous note stressed: “Nobody, starting from the ISS, has ever questioned the quality of our work which, indeed, the ISS has always validated considering it suitable to represent the situation of the our region. “