Coronavirus, Iss: “No critical situation in Italy. Transmissibility index (Rt) below 1. But caution is needed when moving”. Hope: “Encouraging data”

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“At the moment they are not reported in Italy critical situation related to the epidemic of COVID-19“. In short, this is the result of monitoring the indicators for the so-called Phase 2 carried out byHigher Institute of Health and from Ministry of Health for the week between 18 and 24 May. Key data and on which government decisions will be based in view of the 3 June, the date on which the reopening to the free movement between regions. And on this issue, the note released by the ministry led by the minister Roberto Speranza, calls for caution: “The weekly incidence remains a lot heterogenous in the national territory. In some Regions the number of cases is still high, indicating a complex situation but under control. In others the number of cases is very limited. It is therefore recommended caution especially in the moment in which the movement of people on the national territory “, we read. Speranza himself comments positively on the published data: “The monitoring data are encouraging – he said – The important sacrifices of lockdown have produced these results. We must continue on the road taken gradually and cautiously “.

The report specifies that the weekly incidence remains very heterogeneous in the national territory and that thetransmissibility index (Rt), data used by theIss as a reference for assessments of the epidemic trend in the country, it is below 1, threshold within which the virus is believed to be under control. And they specify that “as regards the estimate of the RT, it is emphasized that when the number of cases is very small, some Regions may temporarily have a Rt greater than 1 because of small local outbreaks which end up affecting the regional total, without this being a worrying element ”.

The trend of new cases and in any case decreasing. “In some Regions, the number of cases is still high, however, indicating a complex but under control situation. In others the number of cases is very limited. However there are no signs of overload of hospital care services on the national territory. Improved levels of resilience are observed ”.

The gradual improvement, experts say, is mainly due to the measures of lockdown that “have effectively allowed a control of Covid-19 infection on the national territory, despite the context of persistent widespread transmission of the virus with a very different incidence in the 21 Regions”. The Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health then conclude that “the current situation, relating to the beginning of the first transition phase, is overall positive. There are still signs of transmission with new outbreaks reported which describe an epidemiologically fluid situation in many Italian regions. This requires the strict compliance with the measures necessary to reduce the risk of transmission such as theindividual hygiene and the physical distancing“.

The Rt index by region
The report released by the ministry also highlights the Rt indices for each Italian region and autonomous province, so as to provide a picture of the more or less risky situations in the country.

Abruzzo: Rt 0.67 (CI: 0.46-0.91). Cumulative incidence: 246.57 per 100,000

Basilicata: Rt 0 (CI: 0-0). Cumulative incidence: 63.6 per 100,000

Calabria: Rt 00:13 (CI: 0.01-0.35). Cumulative incidence: 59.88 per 100,000

Campania: Rt being defined. Cumulative incidence: 78.29 per 100,000

Emilia Romagna: Rt 00:55 (CI: 0.49-0.62). Cumulative incidence: 618.62 per 100,000. Incidence: 6.32 per 100,000

Friuli Venezia Giulia: Rt 0.9 (CI: 0.67-1.16). Cumulative incidence: 260.61 per 100,000. Incidence: 2.3 per 100,000

Lazio: Rt 0.74 (CI: 0.57-0.92). Cumulative incidence: 130.51 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.6 per 100,000

Liguria: Rt 00:58 (CI: 0.51-0.66). Cumulative incidence: 615.17 per 100,000. Incidence: 6.13 per 100,000

Lombardy: Rt 0.75 (CI: 0.72-0.84). Cumulative incidence: 867.33 per 100,000. Incidence: 16.68 per 100,000

Marche: Rt 00:55 (CI: 0.35-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 439.53 per 100,000. Incidence: 3.02 per 100,000

Molise: Rt 2.2 (CI: 1.5-3.33). Cumulative incidence: 141.35 per 100,000. Incidence: 2.62 per 100,000

Autonomous Province of Bolzano: Rt 00:57 (CI: 0.37-0.83). Cumulative incidence: 487.41 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.51 per 100,000

Piedmont: Rt 0.5 (CI: 0.46-0.55). Cumulative incidence: 703.56 per 100,000. Incidence: 12.46 per 100,000

Autonomous Province of Trento: Rt 0.88 (CI: 0.68-1.09). Cumulative incidence: 999.45 per 100,000. Incidence: 12.57 per 100,000

Puglia: Rt 0.62 (CI: 0.45-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 110.97 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.89 per 100,000

Sardinia: Rt 00:51 (CI: 0.22-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 82.09 per 100,000. Incidence: 0.37 per 100,000

Sicily: Rt 0.75 (CI: 0.44-1.19). Cumulative incidence: 60.68 per 100,000. Incidence: 0.44 per 100,000

Tuscany: Rt 00:59 (CI: 0.47-0.73). Cumulative incidence: 266.19 per 100,000. Incidence: 2.63 per 100,000

Umbria: Rt 0.94 (CI: 0.57-1.41). Cumulative incidence: 162.24 per 100,000. Incidence: 0.45 per 100,000

Valle d’Aosta: Rt 0.8 (CI: 0.43-1.1). Cumulative incidence: 944.57 per 100,000. Incidence: 6.37 per 100,000.

Veneto: Rt 0.65 (CI: 0.49-0.83). Cumulative incidence: 389.47 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.63 per 100,000

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