Coronavirus in Lombardy, Phase 2 accounts: one month and thirteen thousand new patients


Milan, May 31, 2020 – Decrees are not enough to convince the virus to vanish into thin air, but time has helped so far. A distance of almost a month after the end of the lockdown for the Lombardy there are two news, good and bad.

The good news is that slowly, without jolts but also without stops, the epidemic is waning. Fewer cases, especially many fewer ICU admissions. The bad news is that you keep dying. From 30 April to 30 May, another 2,307 Lombards disappeared, from over 13,000 to 16,000, +14 percent. A month ago, 93 deaths occurred in 24 hours. Yesterday, another 67. But the perspective distance between these two figures is greater than it seems: a month ago 93 lost lives were almost a downward anomaly in a much higher average. Today 67 are a high peak, after days around 20 deaths. Mourning remains, but the trend does not reverse the downward curve, thus authorizing a minimum of optimism on the effectiveness of the rules adopted to reopen shops, bars, restaurants and above all factories and jobs.

The Rsnub between the data on April 30 and May 30 provided by the Region is also useful for understanding how the epidemic is evolving in the different Lombard territoriesrdi, affected in times and in ways other than the coronavirus. The total cases of contagion were 75 thousand, today they are 88 thousand. Thirteen thousand more, equal to +14.7 percent. Same growth in deaths. But there are areas of Lombardy, less devastated at the beginning, which are gradually recovering. Varese, which rose from 2,667 patients to 3,594, marks the growth record: +927 and + 25.8%. Well above average. The positive record, however, marks the low, Cremona and Mantua. The first, territory in contiguity with the Lodigiano area, had 6,037 Covid patients as of April 30th. 6,448 a month later. An increase of 411 equal to + 6.4%. Mantua does better, perhaps affected by the beneficial influence of the proximity of Emilia and Veneto, in conditions of greater security. Here we go from 3,175 cases to 3,345: +170, or + 5.1%.

Positive exceptions in a sea of ​​provinces that record increases in cases, perhaps only slightly, but more than the regional average. It does this the failure of the red zone of Bergamo. Covid positives have risen 2,010 units in the past month, from 11,313 to 13,323: + 15%, just 0.3% above the average. Milan, which, with the entire metropolitan city, goes from 19,000 patients to over 23,000, marks a 16% growth. Lodi, in turn the origin of the first known outbreak, discovered in Codogno on 20 February, increases by 502 cases ascertained by swab. They were 2,966 on March 30, they reached 3,468 yesterday: the increase is 15.4%. Less than one point above average.

There are, as mentioned, also excellent news on the health front. And they come, as has been happening for some time, from intensive care. A month ago, intubated and under special surveillance, there were 605 people and in one day it had fallen to 29. Now the drop is less noticeable: just one patient less, but the share is only 172 beds occupied by the most cases serious. Less clear numbers, however, those of the healed. That thirty days ago according to the Region – according to officially published data – was 51,166, for a growth of 819. Today, more cautiously, the bulletin marks 50,870. With an increase of 1,028. Obviously there is an error in the compilation of the reports or a change in the calculation method. The same at the center of criticism these days.

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