but high contagions in Lombardy


Report cards, promoted regions: but high contagions in Lombardy

General situation positive, but fluid, with outbreaks still present. And then a lot of caution “especially if where to increase the movement of people on the national territory”. This is the final judgment of the weekly monitoring report on COVID-19. But to better understand what lies behind the generality of an assessment that does not name any region, we must start from a value: the weekly incidence of new infections on 100,000 inhabitants. More than the RT, which also in this report provided a bizarre ruling for non-epidemiologists with Molise at the stratospheric 2.2 level despite having only one more cao yesterday also.

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In fact, to understand how in Italy the epidemic now travels at different speeds, it is important to see how many new infected are found per week in relation to the population.
Well, there are three regions that have that indicator above 10: the Lombardy (which every day records about 2/3 of all Italian cases) which is at 16.78, high although improving compared to the previous week when it was at 23.75; the Piedmont at 12.46 (16.69 seven days ago); the Autonomous Province of Trento which is at 12.57 (it was at 24). The situation of the Liguria which in the assessments of seven days ago was at 15.03 (there is always talk of the incidence of new infections on 100,000 inhabitants), in the last report it dropped to 6.13, a value similar to that ofEmilia Romagna. The Lazioinstead, it is 1.6 and this gives a sense of the difference between the various regions.

Let’s summarize: Lombardy 16.78 new cases per one hundred thousand inhabitants on a weekly basis, Lazio 1.6. Still: Veneto 1.63, Abruzzo 2.74, Umbria even 0.45, Marche 3.02, Campania 0.98.
How can you think of opening up to interregional travel with the same criteria, regions such as Lombardy or Piedmont which have an incidence of new cases even fifteen times higher than the others? It’s a mistery. But the government’s goal is that. And yesterday, in the dissemination of the weekly evaluation (based on data from 18 to 24 May) in application of the decree that takes 21 indicators into consideration, the cards were also mixed to pass the concept that all regions are equal and that there are no critical issues .

Let us remember: report cards are compiled from the control room formed by the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health and representatives of the regions. Every Friday there was a conference from the Higher Institute of Health which also served to present these assessments.
Yesterday it was canceled: since the topic of reopening is hot it is better to avoid sunburn. Not only that: on the two previous occasions, a summary table and an analysis that well presented the different regional profiles had always been used. Yesterday, on the other hand, it was a bit done as in the American legal movies or in the Suits series: when a lawyer has to make his papers available to the other party, he floods them with documents in order to complicate the synthesis.

So yesterday, all the documents were released, separated, region by region. Accompanying them from prudent summaries. Health Minister Roberto Speranza: «The monitoring data are encouraging. The sacrifices have produced these results. We must continue gradually and cautiously ». The Higher Institute of Health: «The weekly incidence remains very heterogeneous in the national territory. In some Regions the number of cases is still high (but they are not mentioned, ed) denoting a complex situation but under control. In others the number of cases is very limited. Therefore caution is recommended. There are no signs of overload of hospital care services on the national territory. Improved levels of resilience are observed ».

Then there is the front of the RT, the transmission index, that is the potential speed of the infection. All regions are below 1 (therefore in the security zone): Lazio is 0.76, Lombardy 0.75 (growing), Calabria 0.13, Marche 0.55, Veneto at 0.65, Umbria at 0.84, for Basilicata even the value 0 appears. All right? No, here is the new case of Molise at 2.2, however, the result of a statistical mirage that occasionally affects regions with few positives. The report also specifies: “When the number of cases is very small, some Regions may temporarily have an Rt greater than 1 due to small outbreaks”. The Higher Institute of Health concludes: «The lockdown measures in Italy have allowed infection control even in a context of persistent widespread transmission of the virus with a very different incidence in the territories. The current situation regarding the start of the first transition phase is generally positive. There are signs of transmission with new outbreaks reported that describe an epidemiologically fluid situation in many Italian regions ».

Last updated: 10:12


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