2020 Election Mandate Survey: Leading Blue and White, No Block Has 61


On the way to a fourth election? 15 days before the third election, and no change in the political picture. The 103fm poll, which was conducted for the 103 FM premiere of ‘Seven Nine’, shows that even this week none of the blocs has a 61-member Knesset majority that would allow it to form a government. The center-left bloc along with the Arab list has 57 seats, while the right-wing bloc has one less. At the center of the map is also Israel Beitno, headed by MK Avigdor Lieberman, with 7 mandates in which they can implement any political scenario.

The poll, which Menachem Lazar, director of the Politics Panel, conducted, shows that the big party is blue and white, with 35 seats. According to this poll, the Likud reaches 32 seats, and the joint list is the third largest with 14 seats. Subsequently, four parties with eight seats each: Labor-Gesher-Meretz, right, Shas and Torah Judaism. Lieberman, as mentioned, with one less mandate.

The survey also shows that Itamar Ben Gvir’s party, Jewish power, 2.8 percent of the vote, is a significant figure, but still not close to the blocking percentage. An equally important point is the rate of floating votes: 14.2 percent of survey respondents stated that they did not yet know who would vote.

In favor of annexation – against exchange of land

While the blue-and-white party is the leader in the mandate map, the question of whether the prime minister is fit presents a slightly different picture: incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a slight advantage over the question of whether he is prime minister, despite the criminal charges attributed to him. Fifty-four percent of respondents thought that Netanyahu was better suited to be Israeli prime minister, and 40 percent responded that Benny Gantz was the right fit for the job. 17 percent answered this question: “I don’t know.” If the Jewish respondents to the poll are isolated, the result is more crushing: 50% of the Jews who responded to the poll found Netanyahu more suitable for the prime minister, while 37 percent said that Gantz was the best fit for the job.

According to the survey, there is a pressing majority of respondents who expressed support for applying Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria even before the elections and without American support. 36 percent support this, while 31 percent oppose it. The rest – neutral or opinionated.

On the question of territorial exchange, however, the answers from the survey are unequivocal: a significant 37 percent oppose the idea of ​​land and population exchanges within which Arab communities in the Wadi Ara Triangle area will move to Palestinian sovereignty. Only 26 percent said they supported the idea.

Is a significant change in the block map expected in the period remaining until the election? In two weeks and one day we will head to the polls, and it seems that as time goes on, the mood is that this is not the last time this year.

The poll was conducted for the 103fm Panel of Politics. The survey included 526 respondents, members of the Panel4All political panel for conducting research on the Internet (a survey was sent to 3,603 panel members). The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel, Jews and Arabs alike – aged 18 and over. It was conducted on February 14-13, 2020, and the maximum sampling error is 4.4 percent.

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