The scene of the assassination in Tehran
Despite this, reality shows that these assassinations have at least one deterrent, which requires the terrorist organization or in this case the terrorist state, to reorganize. What’s more, the replacement of a key figure affects the entire organization, even if it is not an elimination. For example, there is a big difference between the leadership of Yahya Sinwar in Hamas in Gaza, compared to Ismail Haniyeh. In this context it should be noted that Pharizadeh’s successor may surpass him.
It seems that each step individually would not have significantly slowed down the Iranian arms race for mass destruction and regional hegemony. But more elimination and more sanctions are accumulating for a huge mass, which Iran is having a hard time dealing with, probably in days of economic crisis and the corona plague.
On the other hand, the Obama administration’s nuclear deal has boosted Iran’s appetite, and the large amount of money, some of which is to be appreciated, has been diverted indirectly to military activity in the region. In light of these things, it seems that through compromise and avoidance of confrontation, there has already been a failure despite the good intentions.
And here, next year the Islamic Republic was much more careful in its actions. In Iraq, the pro-Iranian militias contented themselves with launching mortars at the government district in Baghdad and in the Persian Gulf there were no unusual incidents despite threats to block the trade route. The missile attack on American bases in Iraq in response to Suleimani’s assassination was also weaker than expected, and did not end in casualties.
Iran’s military involvement over the past year has focused on two areas, and in each of them it has generally preferred the activities of its envoys: along the Israeli border through Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad and in the war against the Saudi coalition in Yemen through the Houthi militia.
Iran appears to be eagerly awaiting a change of government in Washington. If the Biden administration returns to past conciliatory policies and another perforated nuclear deal, Tehran will be able to further strengthen its arms in space. In such a case, the effect of the assassinations of the head of the nuclear project and commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guards – will really weaken.