This is stated by the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) in the November estimate published on Thursday morning. Next year our economy will grow by 2.8%. This is on the condition that the Netherlands and other European countries will have the corona virus under control in the first half of next year.
Unemployment is rising
That growth will lag behind the contraction of more than 4% in 2020. Moreover, according to the Dutch DPA, not only will our economy grow next year, but unemployment will also rise to over 6%. Especially young people and people with a flexible contract and self-employed people are the victims of this.
The new CPB figures are slightly higher for 2020, and slightly lower for 2021, than the figures published on Budget Day. This is because the recovery in the third quarter was better than expected, but also because of the second corona wave that erupts afterwards.
The CPB has also calculated a scenario in which the corona virus is not yet under control next year. In that case, new corona waves keep breaking out and there are too few vaccines or they don’t work well enough. In that case, the economy will contract another year by almost 1% and unemployment will rise to more than 8% by the end of 2021.
The cornavirus will also leave traces in our economy in the long term. In 2025, the gross domestic product will be 4% lower than what the CPB took into account in March of this year, when the corona pandemic was not yet taken into account. Unemployment fell to 4.5% in that year. From 2022 to 2025, economic growth will be 1.5% per year.
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