Towards the first confrontation: America is looking for a “happy ending”


The US political Super Bowl – the presidential confrontation between Donald Trump and Joe Biden – is underway. But unlike the American Football League, the winner of the confrontation (three in total) will not necessarily win the championship. Swinging. The way things are said – maybe yes. The one who usually benefits from the confrontations is the president’s opponent. It’s enough to be on the same stage with the most powerful man in the world to give him a touch of legitimacy, Will receive a significant image boost.
There is no doubt that the New York Times’ revelation about Trump’s tax reports from recent years will lead to a major preoccupation with the issue in today’s confrontation, and Trump will once again be asked to respond to allegations that he is hiding data about his financial situation. Following the Times’ revelation that there is no indication of criminal activity in the parts exposed. In fact, these are apparently reports that show that Trump has been able to use tax laws religiously and legally to get tax relief and recognizable expenses as is customary in the business world. You usually have to risk a significant portion of your capital and incur losses for years in order to take advantage of them, “an expert named Ryan Ellis wrote on Twitter.

He added that Trump, like many in the U.S., has donated to various organizations so that he does not have to pay taxes. “He may have insane expenses as well as insane revenues, but the expenses are spread over a long period of time to maximize offsets. There is nothing out of the ordinary here. “

Either way, the momentum of the confrontations is the most important thing a candidate (incumbent or not) can get out of these confrontations. In 1960, young Senator John F. Kennedy got what he wanted from the confrontation and became an equivalent political figure to Vice President Richard Nixon of the Republican Party following his success in the confrontation (in part because Nixon ignored the need to put on make-up and shave before the historic confrontation). In the moment of truth, Nixon lost by a small margin in the number of electors (and by a tiny margin in the national vote count).

In the end, when there is an incumbent president seeking another term, the race is always a referendum on him, and the presidential clashes are the trailer for the referendum and his chance to prove he deserves another seat from the electorate.

Bill Clinton also took advantage of the clashes to demonstrate how much he knows how to speak directly to voters compared to George W. Bush Sr., who despite the aura of the Gulf War and the end of the Cold War, has not “passed a screen.”

Either way, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden know that confrontations will not decide the election, but on the other hand they know that any utterance, marginal as it may be, any stumble, even if momentary, and any unsuccessful sound-bite or grimace caught on camera, can Grab headlines and take over the agenda for hours and days. A quick glance at George W. Bush Sr. on his watch during one of the clashes in 1992 turned him into a punching bag for days.

How important are the conflicts this year? It seems not at all, as most of the events in the election campaign so far have not caused fluctuations in the polls. Voters have already formed their minds and are well involved in the election campaign and the rate of “floating” votes is unusually small in this election campaign. What will ultimately decide the election is not one promise or another from Trump or Biden, or even an unfortunate utterance from either of them (expectations from both are so low that nothing will amaze voters).

What will ultimately decide the election is whether one of the candidates succeeds in igniting America’s imagination and riding an unstoppable wave of optimism, hope and energy, as Trump managed to do in the last two weeks of the 2016 election. No longer the outsider. But beyond that, he has a mathematical challenge: his voters are very enthusiastic, but their share of the population is smaller than in 2016 and his coalition is gradually losing the votes that decided the election: whites without higher education.

For Biden the task is not easy either: his voters are not eager, and even those disappointed with Trump may stay home or vote for Trump again because of economic interest (Trump has been consistently perceived, even in the Corona era, as the best fit to run the economy, which broke records until recently). Both candidates hope that, like their party’s national conferences, they will be able to rekindle the winds of their faltering campaigns through confrontations. But like any election campaign, the race has its own dynamics. And it is possible that the decisive event of the 2020 elections will come out of nowhere, just before Doomsday.

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