Despite the closure: Weizmann Institute researchers published a difficult forecast on the eve of Yom Kippur, which shows that the number of seriously ill patients is expected to climb to 5,000 by the end of November • According to Professor Ran Blitzer: “More than 80% of the dead 6-8 months on average, lolly corona “
Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed the health system to prepare for the treatment of 1,500 seriously ill patients, and it seems that the number is even relatively low. According to the Weizmann Institute’s forecast published on the eve of Yom Kippur, the number of difficult patients is expected to rise to 1,050-950 in a week, after which the numbers will rise further. So far, members of the Weizmann Institute have been able to provide predictions that have been proven correct.
According to the forecast, despite the closure, the number of seriously ill patients could reach a peak of 1,100 by mid-October, and by the end of November, about 5,000 serious patients and 1,000 dead in total are expected to be added. This emerges from an analysis of scenarios of critically ill patients, performed in the laboratory of Prof. Eran Segal at the Weizmann Institute, together with research students Hagai Rossman and Tomer Meir. According to Roni Linder Ganz in The Marker who unveiled the study, these are numbers that far exceed the number set as the “red line” of hospital insufficiency – 800 critically ill patients at a time.
The model of the Weizmann Institute is based on a weighting of the number of verified, their age, the risk of deteriorating to a serious condition and mortality by age, and the duration of hospitalization. It should be noted that the model assumptions are based on the fact that there will be no change in the level of medical care (if there is such a change the number of deaths is expected to increase for example), and that the mix of verified ages will not change significantly. The Weizmann Institute expects that after reaching the peak of about 1,100 severe patients in mid-October, morbidity will decline rapidly due to the effect of the closure.
Another interesting and disturbing fact that they discovered at the Weizmann Institute is that there is a consistent decrease in the age of the deceased. This is despite the fact that there is no real change in the age of the patients, which is moderate and severe. Thus, while two months ago, at the end of July, a quarter of the deceased were under the age of 80, today a quarter of the deceased are under 70 years of age. The median of the deceased also dropped from 84 at the end of July to 78 today. According to Segal, there could be three possible explanations for this: better care for very elderly patients leading to a decrease in their mortality, less good care for young people, or the onset of impairment in the overall quality of care.
It should be noted that Prof. Ran Blitzer, head of Clalit’s Innovation Institute, also said that “more than 80% of the dead, including the elderly and the sick, could have lived for at least another 6-8 months on average, without the corona.”
Staff and his staff also tried to test when and how it would be possible to ease the restrictions of the closure. Currently, the coefficient of adhesion (R) is, according to their calculation, 1.03. When the coefficient of infection drops to 0.9, if the easing of the closure begins in a state of 1,000 verified per day – a decrease to 600 verified per day and 400 severe patients in hospitals is expected. This situation will happen by calculation only around October 25, that is, in a month.
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