Hebrew University researchers: Increased mortality due to declining health system performance – News in Israel


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A team of researchers from the Hebrew University and Hadassah, which monitors the corona epidemic, provided the Corona Cabinet with several updates regarding the morbidity and expected mortality in various reference scenarios to the closure, according to health and public parameters measured since Rosh Hashanah.

According to the researchers, there has been a high increase in the percentage of deaths among those hospitalized in a moderate and severe condition over the past two weeks.

Among other things, the possibility arises that this increased mortality is due to a decrease in the performance of the health system, due to the heavy workload created in the hospitals and the medical staff in them or the patients may arrive late to the hospitals or the resources are insufficient for patients’ survival.

Moreover, these days the experts are examining why there has been a significant decrease in the number of days of hospitalization of those who died of corona during the month of September. In a graph published under the heading “Possible indicator of declining health system performance,” the researchers showed that the average number of days until death from the disease dropped from 15 days to about 11 during early September. “This is an indicator of a possible decline in the survival capacity of the health system,” the researchers note in their report.

From the morbidity indices, even today it seems that the closure, which began about ten days ago, still does not show sufficient effect. “The inefficiency (of the quarantine) may be due to infection in the home, but it will certainly require an extension of the quarantine to obtain a satisfactory effect,” the researchers note in the report.

The researchers addressed a possible gradual exit from the quarantine below. The researchers emphasize that there is great importance in driving out of quarantine using many metrics, related not only to the number of verified infections daily, but also to trends in severe morbidity, and the performance of the epidemiological array, and its grip capabilities in infection chains. Now the overarching goal, for them, is to reach morbidity levels that will allow for “isolation and extinction of outbreaks,” that is, the formation of a life alongside the disease until a medical solution such as a vaccine or drug is found.

Immediately, the researchers hope to reach a daily multiplication coefficient of less than 0.9 while maintaining its ability over several weeks. Reaching a daily coefficient of 0.9, they claim, will allow suppression of the current corona wave within three weeks. “In order to stabilize the routine of life during the outbreak, it is possible to consider a return of the education system in lower grades only and in non-‘red ‘areas in capsules with staff separation (unlike what was done), and resumption of national economic activity without gatherings indoors and without exceptions similar to’ red areas’. “, Reads the document.

The experts who signed the new report are Prof. Yinon Ashkenazi, Prof. Doron Gazit and Prof. Nadav Katz of the Rakach Institute of Physics, together with Prof. Ronit Calderon-Margalit and Prof. Ran Nir-Paz of the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Hospital Hadassah.

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