In a tweet, Musk, the big man behind Tesla, says the automaker will build 20 million cars a year “probably by 2030”.
He does add that Tesla has to work consistently excellent.
Musk also recently said that he expects Tesla to eventually make 20 million cars a year, but he did not add a year to that.
In order to achieve the target, Tesla must significantly increase production. In all of 2019, the company still made 367,500 cars.
For car production to turn 54 times higher in eleven years, production would have to grow nearly 44 percent every year.
Bottom of expectations
The 367,500 cars Tesla built last year were at the lower end of expectations, but it meant production increased by 50 percent. The question is, of course, whether this growth rate can be sustained, especially if the absolute numbers involved increase.
For this year, Tesla is expecting a production of 500,000 cars. That would mean an increase of 36 percent compared to last year.
Was too optimistic before
Musk has often expressed expectations that later turned out to be too optimistic. Tesla had not mastered production well at the time.
Musk may think his plan for a cheaper Tesla, which should cost $ 25,000, will boost sales.
‘2 million cars in the mid-1920s’
Tesla now has factories in California and China. A third plant, in Germany, is now under construction, and Musk unveiled plans for another plant in Texas in July.
Experts say that would increase production capacity to more than 2 million cars a year by the middle of this decade, The Wall Street Journal wrote this summer.
30 million electric cars in 7 years
Musk also expects all automakers to produce 30 million electric cars per year within 7 years. This may also be feasible in six or five years, but he considers the latter unlikely.
“An extra year makes a huge difference when it comes to exponential growth.”
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