Corona: Mortality in September was higher than expected


Worrying findings: Researchers from the Institute of Physics and the School of Public Health from the Hebrew University and Hadassah Hospital presented today (Wednesday) to the Corona Projector Prof. Roni Gamzo And to the other members of the Corona Cabinet during the discussions that are taking place at this time, a number of alarming figures regarding the extent of the morbidity.

The team members who signed the report are Prof. Yinon Ashkenazi, Prof. Doron Gazit and Prof. Nadav Katz of the Rakach Institute of Physics, together with Prof. Ronit Calderon-Margalit and Prof. Ran Nir-Paz of the Hebrew University School of Public Health and Community Medicine.

The document submitted deals with the monitoring of the plague and includes updates regarding the morbidity and expected mortality in various attribution scenarios for closure, according to health and public parameters measured since Rosh Hashanah. It was also noted that over the past two weeks it has been apparent that there has been An increase in the percentage of deaths from patients hospitalized in a moderate and severe condition.

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The report also shows that there is a possibility that the increased mortality recorded is due to a general decline in the performance of the health system, mainly due to the heavy load created in hospitals recently, along with the pressure on medical staff due to the current situation. It was noted, however, that some patients may arrive at hospitals too late to receive treatment, or that the resources available at the medical centers are insufficient for the survival of the patients.

Meanwhile, experts noted a particularly worrying figure indicating that during September a higher-than-expected mortality rate was recorded. The graph attached to the report showed that there was a significant decrease in the number of days of hospitalization of those who died of corona in the last month, and that the average number of days until death from the disease dropped from 15 days to about 11 days from the beginning of September. “This is an indicator of a possible decline in the survival capacity of the health system,” they clarified.

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The data showed that in terms of morbidity indices, it seems that the closure, which began about ten days ago, does not yet show a sufficient effect. “It is possible that the ineffectiveness of the quarantine is also due to the infection of patients inside their home. It can be said that an extension of the quarantine will certainly be required, in order to have a satisfactory effect,” they explained.

Later, they referred to the possibility of a gradual exit from the quarantine soon, an issue that was also raised by the Minister of Health yesterday July Edelstein Who stated that he was expected to present an orderly outline on the subject to the Cabinet. The document in question, which was submitted to the cabinet members, emphasizes that in the set of considerations for leaving the quarantine, emphasis should be placed on various indicators, not only those related to the number of daily verified infections, but also trends in morbidity and epidemiological performance.

July Edelstein (Photo: Ministry of Health)

According to them, the overarching goal of the fight against the virus is to reach morbidity levels that will make it possible to take measures of isolation, in a way that will lead to “extinguishing outbreaks”, until a time when there is an accessible vaccine distributed in the market. At the same time, the researchers suggested a number of measures that would help a quick return to routine, including opening up the education system in lower grades only and in areas that are not considered ‘red’ according to Prof. Gamzo’s traffic light method.

They also suggested that the education system return to operating in a model of capsules with the separation of the educational staff, in contrast to the previous model that was applied. In terms of returning to activity in the economy extensively, the researchers suggested allowing this without gatherings in enclosed spaces, similar to what was customary in the outline of the red areas.

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