The 3 invisible spreads that scare the markets and bring the black swan closer


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The Stock Exchanges are at their highest (Wall Street), close to (the DAX 30 Frankfurt is just 2%) or in any case in great shape (since the beginning of the year Piazza Affari has risen by almost 30%). Not all operators, however, are ready to continue investing capital in the stock market, considering that it has many contradictions. Financial quotations in the broad sense (therefore, considering also the vast market of private and government bonds worldwide which today, as never before happened, more than 55 thousand billion dollars) send various warning signals on the sustainability of current market prices.

"I have never liked the catastrophists to the bitter end, those that always foresee the approach of huge misfortunes on the horizon and point the finger at the poor optimists, unaware of what is waiting for them – explains Michele De Michelis, Frame investments manager asset management, an independent company specializing in absolute return asset management -.

Elaine Garzarelli became famous for having predicted the famous Black Monday of '87, but after her career, although very dignified, she was overwhelmed by excessive expectations regarding the possibility that she could repeat her first success with a new revelation.
I would never want to pass for a bird of ill omen, however at this moment I really find it hard not to harbor perplexity in the face of this wave of euphoria on the stock markets, which have registered new records: absolutes in the US and in Europe and Japan » .

At the moment there are at least three spreads that scare the experts about the possible arrival of a black swan. These are less known spreads compared to what we know, the BTp-Bund spread, and which for this reason we could define "invisible". But they are now finished on the radar of the specialized operators, those that try to extract daily returns from the world of finance and that, also for this, try to intercept in advance any strong corrections, so as to protect the invested capital.

1) The spread between expected dividends and share prices
The Grafinomix of the day shows a strong misalignment (spread precisely) between the dividend futures of the companies of the S&P 500 index of the Wall Street Stock Exchange and the quotations of the same index that are on the all-time highs. If in December 2018 the two lines were paired today the distance is remarkable, graphically very strong. Flying in Europe, the picture is not so far (see graph below). Even the companies that make up the Eurostoxx 50 index basket show a recent and strong misalignment between Stock Market values ​​and expected dividends.

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