The first hypothesis is an extraordinary administration extended to the entire corporate body. The second is a masked nationalization. The third scenario is that of a mini-Ilva and the fourth is that the situation explodes
by Paolo Bricco
3 'of reading
Four scenarios. Four hypotheses between chimeras and desires, projects and failures. In the darkness of a point of fall that will be consumed dramatically in the coming weeks. The first scenario is an extraordinary administration extended to the entire Ilva body. With an extraordinary commissioner who is a sort of managing director able to operate with full powers. Politics – frantically – is trying to write names. However, there is no Enrico Bondi around.
THE'extraordinary administration, which would pose many legal problems because the company, while losing a lot, is not technically in default, would in fact report Ilva in the full public perimeter.
The second scenario is one masked nationalization. Politicians and trade unionists on all sides look to this. The idea, which responds perfectly to the perennial statist impulses in the Italian social, cultural and political body, is to use the Cassa depositi e prestiti – or a company controlled by it, with an appropriate statute and the placet of the former banking foundations – for finance an operation that, between covering losses and corporate finance with which to restructure, would cost at least a billion euros (600 million euros to partially cover losses and 400 million euros for operations).
Three small problems: what do the heads of a Cassa depositi e prestiti think of it now treated like the Madonna carried in procession whenever there is a big problem, what the European Union thinks about state aid and what think the Mittal, who should cede the company and decide whether to make a billionaire lawsuit against the Italian state. With this nationalization masked, there would be one last, fundamental problem: who would handle it ? An Italian steel entrepreneur? A series of steel entrepreneurs, so that we can revive the myth of the consortium? It may be, however, provided that we have all the legal guarantees taken from ArcelorMittal and not to put a euro out of their pockets.
The third scenario is the mini-Ilva. The Mittals have launched the provocation: you take back the hot area and we keep the area cold. Beyond the hard and deteriorated confrontation between the multinational and the Government, this idea of closing the hot area is, in reality, often invoked by many as feasible, if not desirable, because it would diminish the environmental impact and why would bring the plant back to a more manageable size, able to have an autonomy in and of itself and, also, to be compatible and combinable with decarbonisation projects, now the true saving myth of Taranto, with the Indian Sajjan Jindal become the reference entrepreneur of the ex premier Matteo Renzi, of the president of Puglia Michele Emiliano and of the owner grillino of the Mise Stefano Patuanelli.