Yesterday the spread between German BTP and yields rose to 154 points. As in early September, when the Giallorossi – who had just settled at Palazzo Chigi – went around saying that, thanks to their arrival, the tension on the markets was over.
And a period of fat cows would have opened, thanks to the bond with the nascent EU Commission. Well, two months have passed and 1) the return on Italian securities (that is, the cost that Italy pays to buy debt that it issues on the market) is the same as that of Greek bonds; 2) the new European government, the one where they put Gentiloni to Economic Affairs, has not yet left and who knows when it will take office, cause quarrels between parties in Brussels.
Roberto Gualtieri, professor of history, but considered a brainchild at the level of public accounts, placed at the head of the Ministry of the Economy for his strong connection with EU environments, does not open his mouth on the spread. Yesterday at Ecofin he reiterated his "no" to the reforms proposed by the Germans, who would like to prevent our banks from buying BTP. Right, but when the Lega complained, the Democratic Party – party in which Gualtieri is a militant – shouted to Italy's disaster.
And now? What should we say? What M5S and Pd bring us into the abyss? We are not joking, only the left uses everything, even the numbers, to denigrate the adversary. The ECB, thanks to Mario Draghi, has created such a protective shield – with zero-rate blows – that there is no danger. Or rather: if Italy falls, the whole EU falls.
If anything, the only trouble is for the Giallorossi, who will see the treasure shrink, the son of the drop in the spread. The EU Commission, in its forecasts, has estimated that Italy in 2020 will save about 7 billion euros thanks to the reduction in yields that has occurred in recent months. The beneficial effect, in fact, will be felt also in 2019, with a saving of around 1.8 billion.
These are the estimates of Brussels, which are based for 2020 on one-percent interest expenditure. However, if yields rise (yesterday they were around 1.3%), part of those 7 billion savings forecast by Moscovici will evaporate. Generating an additional hole in the budget law. Not so much now, given that the accounts were put in order by Tria in July, as in 2020 precisely. Probably the executive, whatever the next summer, will be forced to the umpteenth adjustment maneuver. But were Conte, Zingaretti, Gualtieri, Di Maio not the saviors of the country? Those who, thanks to them, families have avoided paying an additional 523 euros a year for the increase in VAT?
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The leaders of the majority, however, do not say that, while our spread has returned to 154, the Spanish one – a country completely in chaos – has stopped at 64, that of Portugal mangled by austerity is even at 58, the Slovenian at 44 and the differential French is even at 28, almost non-existent. Despite Macron has raised the debt and for ten years defied the European parameters on the deficit-GDP.
Needless to turn around: the foreigners who invest do not trust us. Until a few months ago all the faults were attributed to Salvini and his anti-euro troop, now the responsibilities are instead of the duo Conte-Zingaretti, masters in offending, not really brilliant in governing a country. On the other hand, how to trust an executive who first promises one thing – the criminal shield to the owners of the Ilva – and then in the Chamber, also raising his voice, takes away the protection from the prosecutors, and complains if the entrepreneurs decide to throw the sponge?
of Giuliano Zulin