"Prudentially, the government does not assume that this incentive determines any tax base emergence in the programming years. However, it is plausible that in the medium term it can contribute to reducing the propensity to escape, "he said. Luigi Federico Signorini, deputy director general of the Bank of Italy, during the hearing on the maneuver. "Some recent empirical studies highlight the existence of a negative relationship between evasion and the share of transactions carried out with electronic money," emphasizes Signorini. "Promoting the use of the most modern means of payment (always respecting, of course, the individual preferences of consumers) is also useful for other reasons. The use of cash involves not insignificant costs for the production, distribution, storage of banknotes and increases security risks and those associated with forgery". The deputy director of the Bank of Italy stressed that "in Italy the spread of electronic payments remains rather low. The total value of the transactions now settled with a payment card at the physical point of sale is just over 30% – as in Spain – compared to over 70 in France and around 45% in Germany ”. And empirical studies “suggest that the customer's propensity to use paper is sensitive to monetary incentives similar to those envisaged by the maneuver (cashback, awards, discounts, points). On the basis of the generally estimated elasticities, an increase in electronic transactions of the order of 10% can be expected as a joint effect of the incentive measures envisaged by the government ”.
Giuseppe Pisauro, president of the Parliamentary Budget Office, for his part, however, warned of the risk that the "forms of evasion with consent" would increase, those in which the consumer agrees with the seller or the professional a payment in black with the discount. "This type of evasion, certainly more difficult to combat, has not yet been tackled with determination", continued the economist, Professor of Finance at the Sapienza University of Rome, who said that "the increase in tax evasion with consent could lead to even to one loss of revenue. This phenomenon should be contrasted by the provision of adequate controls on the stability and credibility of revenue margins". However the maneuver, for the Upb, "makes one appreciable effort fielding a set of measures dissuasive, incentives, repressive is informative wide-ranging for the purpose of a significant recovery of tax bases. It is therefore time to prepare all operational tools able to maximize its effectiveness, equipping the Administration of necessary professional and technical resources and overcoming any remaining obstacles (for example those concerning the treatment of personal data) ". Clear reference to the stakes so far set by the Privacy Guarantor for the use of the Financial Reports Registry to identify risk evasion criteria and prepare lists of tax payers to be checked.
The Upb recalls that among the new measures provided for in the budget bill, it is foreseen the possibility for the Revenue Agency to integrate, subject to pseudonymisation of personal data, making them anonymous, the databases already available with the data of the archive of financial reports to define risk profiles useful for the emergence of positions to be subjected to control or to incentivize spontaneous compliance. "The innovative scope of the law – explains the Parliamentary Budget Office – resides in the possibility for the Revenue Agency to move from deductive logic to inductive logics in its own control activity, thanks to the automatic processing of large amounts of data upstream of the determination of the risk criteria ". So far "the determination of risk criteria would seem to have occurred upstream of the consultation of the databases – reducing their effectiveness – as a condition set by the Guarantor for the protection of personal data for the use of the databases themselves. The pseudonymisation of the data, plausibly, should also allow the extension to the universe of taxpayers (all natural persons) of the experiments of the crossing of the databases already in progress at the Revenue Agency with reference to partnerships and capital for certain tax periods ”.
Pisauro then recalled that “with respect to what was assumed in the Nadef (the update note of the Def, ed) the maneuver escapes some elements of uncertainty ", however there remain"risks". "In particular, resizes, compared to the original 7 billion planned for 2020, the contribution of measures to combat tax evasion, now the subject of more prudent and realistic quantifications. The amounts of public finance appear in any case subject to risks and uncertainties deriving from the performance of the macroeconomic framework. A strong deterioration in the international context could negatively affect the foreign demand aimed at our country and therefore on the growth of the GDP, which could be lower than that of the programmatic scenario envisaged in Nadef. Moreover, on the front of the interest rates, the favorable situation due to their recent reduction is subject to uncertainty, with risks on the cost of debt service, "says Pisauro.
Overall the programming of the maneuver presents "too many uncertainties“, Continued Pisauro at Palazzo Madama. "As has happened in all recent years – he underlines – also on this occasion the maneuver sets for 2020 a level of the ratio deficit / GDP stable compared to previous years, returning in the following years its reduction. Reduction, to achieve which we still rely mainly on the safeguard clauses on VAT is excise (19 billion in 2021 and over 25 billion in 2022) which zavorrano the budget planning framework without being provided no indication on their future destiny ”. Furthermore, in the maneuver “they are also taken differing commitments in the three-year period in the field of income and expenses: net of the safeguard clauses, the first tend to shrink (from 7.5 billion in 2020 to 3.9 billion in 2022), the latter to rise significantly (from 0.7 billion next year to 11.3 billion in 2022) ".