With the if and with the but the history is not made. And not even political history. But when the ifs and the perhaps become so many, the rumors are transformed into hypotheses and the hypotheses into probable scenarios. Or even highly probable. One thing is certain: between the delicate affair of the former Ilva and the Budget Law that still faces a difficult parliamentary journey, more than one alarm bell has been lit at the headquarters of the Democratic Party. Al Nazareno, sources close to the secretary Nicola Zingaretti, explain the political situation of the majority in an extremely simple way: either the government is united and works for the good of the country, responding to "bales"of the center-right opposition, or if the executive needs Renzi and Di Maio to avoid returning to the polls and to put flags to sell in the newspapers it makes no sense to go on.
It is quite clear that the maneuver must be approved (if only to avoid the increase in VAT, the official motivation that led to the birth of Count II at the end of the summer) and therefore at least until December 31st, except for improbable twists, there will be no political earthquakes. Then in January, after the Christmas holidays, the eyes will inevitably be focused on the regional elections of theEmilia Romagna on Sunday 26, a true hub after the Salvatorian triumph in Umbria. Parliamentary sources give damage to "certain"the fall of the government and the end of the yellow-red majority in the event of defeat of the center-left and Stefano Bonaccini, also because the umpteenth drubbing in the polls would join the ballet of the distinctions that characterizes the daily life of the Pd-M5S-Italia Viva alliance.
But what do the dem contest? Some concrete examples to understand well why the temperature is always higher certified also by the rise in the spread returned to 150 points. The Renzians who vote confidence in the provision that removes criminal immunity ad ArcelorMittal except then, the next day, to say that they didn't agree. Or always Italy Viva protagonist, who in the Council of Ministers approves the Budget Law and then the next day Renzi shoots on plastic tax. It's still. Luigi Marattin who proposes the measure on company cars later challenged immediately by the former prime minister and former leader dem. Here are the flags and the continuous positions that wear down the majority and that – they say to the Nazarene – allow the excellent communicator Salvini, but also to Meloni, to make public opinion breach by accusing the government of launching a tax-only maneuver, prison and cuts.
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It is no coincidence that in the interviews the PD just flashes the hypothesis of elections Renzi comes out of the closet stating that the legislature must go on until 2023, also because – explain the Nazarene's retrospectives – interested in the upcoming game of public appointments and the election of the President of the Republic on the agenda in 2022. The problem of 5 stars, again according to the Pd-thought, it concerns above all the internal rift, now evident, and Di Maio's inability to hold together the large parliamentary grillina patrol.
On the former Ilva case, for example, the hypothesis of reintroducing the shield clashes with the more radical wing of the pentastellars undermining the compactness of the executive in negotiations. But even on the maneuver it is a continuous distinction, not to mention the relaunch made by the 5 Stars of minimum salary, a historic warhorse that however risks creating new tensions in the government alliance. The problem of Di Maio is clear, he is forced to push on the classic pentastellatos to try to keep the Movement together as much as possible and try to recover after the flop in Umbria and the sharp drop in the polls, but doing so friction with Renzi and the Democratic Party do nothing but increase.
In this context, the premier Giuseppe Conte inevitably it has approached the Democratic Party, a force that at least apparently has a more coherent line and less subject to daily oscillations. Another example is everyone liti Italia Viva-M5S on quota 100 and on the jail to the great evaders to whom the dem and the prime minister assisted astonished.
January, therefore, will be the time of redde rationem. The dems are now giving for sure that in Emilia Romagna there will be no alliance with the 5 Stars, which would even be counterproductive, and that Bonaccini in the end can win on the League's Lucia Borgonzoni. You will see on the morning of Monday, January 27th, of course, but a defeat would mark the end of the executive that he could not bear the controversies and disputes that would inevitably follow a nefarious election outcome. What will happen after a possible government crisis is a question mark. Zingaretti and Franceschini have repeatedly stressed how this executive is the last of the legislature and that if he falls Conte there are only the ballot boxes. But the same thing was repeated continuously even during the M5S-Lega government and then we know how it ended …