Generali, Luxottica model for Trieste. With Del Vecchio the Lion on Axa

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<! – -> With a share close to 10% of the capital, Leonardo Del Vecchio is the first shareholder of Mediobanca and detaches the second partner, the French, by more than two percentage points Vincent Bollore whereas in Piazzetta Cuccia, an UniCredit orphan, it decided to disinvest. A voice, that of Mr. Luxottica, what time Alberto Nagel will not fail to take into account in future strategies of merchant bank. A fundamental voice, but not decisive though. Although, as it seems, the Agordo entrepreneur will rise to 20%.

Yes, because now with the accelerated block-based accelerated placement (package of over 2% purchased by Del Vecchio in part) of 8.81% held by UniCredit to general investors, Mediobanca proceeds quickly towards the model public company. A model in which you can count on, taking away 12.13% of the consultation agreement in the hands of Doris & C, the 6.73% of Bollore is almost 10% of Mr. Luxottica, the market, including the big BlackRock (at 4.98%) and other investment funds, holds over 70% of the capital. And in Piazzetta Cuccia, therefore, reigns almost sovereign.

Of the old caltagirone ape

On the example of Mustier in UniCredit, in fact Alberto Nagel one was built shareholding structure that does not include a bank as a cluttered member, as it was before and where Del Vecchio will have to dig a lot out of funds to give new strategies. On the occasion of the surveys promoted by proxy advisor Georgeson to which he relied for the last Mediobanca meeting, the entrepreneur of Agordo was able to realize concretely the great consensus of which Nagel enjoys in the world of funds. Also because since 2013 the banker, as analysts have recently mentioned Citigroup, has operated the lever of diversification guaranteeing its shareholders a total return (total shareholder return) of around 160%. Among the top five achieved by European banks. Brilliant results therefore the basis of a consensus that is not easily evaporable. And Del Vecchio knows it well.

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Here, rather than changing the characteristics of Mediobanca, perhaps his goal is to have influence over the Generali, where is it Mr. Luxottica between the other is the third shareholder with the 4.86% and where he travels hand in hand with the second partner (5%) Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone. So, the rebus in the end it is Generali. While Mediobanca has changed skin, escaping from too close dependence on the company of Leo, (today its relative weight on the business of Mediobanca has halved compared to 10 years ago), and oriented towards the hen with gold eggs consumer credit (read Compass) and retail banking (see What a bank), for the Trieste company things seem to be unchanged.

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Of course, the Donnet management, which arrived on the Lion's command deck in mid-2016, gave Generali a nice spark. The profits have grown in double figures in recent years: only in the first nine months of 2019 the company has realized net profits of 2.16 billion, with i Gross premiums increased in the 12 months by 3.2%, and with the net inflow into Life increased by 24.5%. The Roperating result is now close to 4 billion, with a leap of 9% in the last year.

Only 4 years ago, i profits were still at 2 billion. In 2018 they rose to 2.3 billion and in 2019, given the encouraging data of the first 9 months of the year, Donnet is preparing to make a new peak in profits. The heritage has strengthened, the debt fell and i co capital efficiencies you see Solvency they are well over 200%. And in fact the quake has given wings to the title that went from 10 euros in 2016 to over 19 euros today. An almost doubling of prices, due both to the economic improvements and to the defensive nature of the title that in the phases of ascent of the spread In the past few years, shareholders have preferred Generali to banking stocks, which were penalized by the rise in the Btp-Bund differential.

axa bee

Then today the speculation about the future destiny of the company with the attack of Del Vecchio at Mediobanca and the exit from Piazzetta Cuccia of UniCredit did the rest. So far so good, but the Trieste giant remains a dwarf compared to its direct competitors in Europe. It is a question of masses and dimensions. Generali with his 30 billion in capitalization disfigures with respect to Axa which has the value of a double exchange; not to mention Allianz, maximum champion in Europe with his 103 billion market value. The same Zurich, former Mario Greco, worth 56 billion today on the Stock Exchange.

In short, among the giants of theinsurance, Generali despite the 90% leap in the stock market over the past 3 years remains the earthenware vessel among the iron vessels. According to the data of Capital Iq, despite rising profits, today Generali makes profits on total revenues of 3.5%. There half of Allianz's profitability and of the same smaller Zurich. Smaller in size and also less profitable in relative terms. Less exposed to equities than companies in Northern Europe and too European as a concentration of business.

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In fact, Leo has been firm in recent decades as to the desire to grow. Donnet has given new impetus and efficiency, but it remains the theme of size and a certain laziness of the company to compete with operations of BUT in style. The only company that can arouse the interest of the Trieste group and have an industrial-financial sense is Axa. The French are in declining phase. Although twice as large as Generali, they are less profitable. And the fall in profitability is now structural.

Today Axa makes profits on revenues for only 1.3%, less than half of Generali. A few years ago it exceeded 4%. A change of pace favorable to the Lion who could take advantage of the French weakness to move to the great attack. At the bottom, below is what hoped or hoped the founder of Luxottica, that Del Vecchio that since the dawn has made his company grow with acquisitions abroad. Making Luxottica the global giant that has become. A model that Del Vecchio would like to replicate in an insurance key. Even if finance, as the ex Ceo Giovanni Perissinotto at the time of his defenestration from Generali and criticized by the Venetian entrepreneur, has very different logics and metrics from the eyewear industry. To believe in a more dynamic Generali are the old drawers of the Lion. Those who have the stock in the portfolio at values ​​close to 40 euros and who have been waiting for the rescue for many years.



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