Based on the estimates made for Affaritaliani.it by the pollster Alessandro Amadori, even if there will be an alliance between dem and pentastellati, perhaps on the failed model followed in Umbria, Zingaretti's party would not have the certainty of winning. If Pd e 5 Star Movement are presented separately, as announced several times by Luigi Di Maio, the center-right would win with about 45% of the votes. The center-left breakfast, extended to all possible components, instead would stop at 41% while the 5 Stars at 12%. The other parties are estimated at 2%.
If instead there was a agreement between dem and pentastellati, in the best hypothesis for the deployment of the ruling majority parties it would lead to a 49 to 49 head to head, with other parties still always at 2%. Politics is not mathematics and it is known that the votes between lists cannot always be added together. In essence, according to Amadori's analysis, a part of the M5S electorate, the most anti-system, in the event of an alliance with the Democratic Party, could choose to vote for Lega or Fratelli d'Italia.
"The institutionalization of the M5S, a hybrid between the pro-government force and anti-system, in an unnatural alliance with the Democratic Party would have the consequence that a part of the electorate would not recognize itself in the Movement, in fact the rib of the Dems ", explains Amadori.
Moreover, the latter underlines the complex reality of Emilia-Romagna for the M5s that cannot count on the territory of rootedness or leading figures as the mayor of Parma could be Pizzarotti who has long since said goodbye to Di Maio and Grillo.
The great dilemma of the 5 Star Movement in view of the January 26 Regionals in the red stronghold is to survive and maintain their soul by going alone, perhaps allying themselves only with some civic list, or to become a small rib of the Democratic Party without even having the certainty of success .
It is recalled that in the last European elections on May 26 in Emilia Romagna the Alloy turned out to be the first party with 33.8%, followed closely by the Democratic Party with 31.2%. In third position, very far, the 5 Star Movement stopped at 12.9%. Forza Italia had obtained 5.9% and the Brothers of Italy 4.7%. 3.6% went to Piu Europa and 2.9% to the Greens. The Left obtained 1.9% and the Communist Party of Marco Rizzo, who will never make agreements with other center-left parties, 1.1%.