Elections Spain, exit polls: Socialists still first party, but lose ground. The Popular are growing, Vox is growing and becoming the third force

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An even greater uncertainty than in the elections of 28 April. This is what the former tell exit poll disseminated at the closure of Spanish seats, at 8pm on Sunday, with the Socialist Party of the premier Pedro Sanchez which fluctuates between 114 and 119 seats, at least 4 less than the 123 of the spring vote. Second party confirmed i Popular of Pablo Casado that, after the crisis that followed the scandal that led to the resignation of the former head of government, Mariano Rajoy, return to growth and move from the 66 seats of the last consultation to the 85-90 of the first exit polls. Third party, as announced by the polls, the Francoists of Vox, driven by Santiago Abascal, which confirm the clear rise, passing from 24 seats to 56-59, well beyond the expectations of the vigil.

Behind the first three formations is attested Podemos, down compared to the previous vote with 30-34 seats compared to 42 in April. follows Ciudadanos, which experienced the most serious collapse, going from 57 seats to 14-15, and the separatists of Esquerra Republicanto (13-14) and of Junts for Catalunya (6-7).

If these numbers are confirmed, the only possibility to put together the 176 seats necessary to form a majority government in Parliament is represented by a large coalition between PSOE and Partido Popular, leaving out the most extremist groups both on the right and on the left. A hypothesis never considered until now and difficult to put in place at the last moment, given that at this point it was also due to the uncompromising position held by Sanchez against Podemos which offered him the opportunity to form a left-wing government in exchange for some concessions.

Since it is on the right, with Popolari, Vox and Ciudadanos, and on the left, with Socialists, Podemos and, possibly, some independentist formation, there are no numbers to reach 176 seats, one of the hypotheses is that of a socialist minority government that could form in the event of abstention of the People during the vote of confidence. A risky choice, however, for Casado's party, since, thus, they would manifest a soft attitude towards the socialist political rivals, risking to favor the most radical propaganda of Vox.


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