The dilemma of the 5 Star Movement in view of the Regionals of 26 January in Emilia Romagna: survive but win the Center-Right and the League or become a rib of the Democratic Party without even the certainty of success? This is the key point that emerges from the estimates on the fundamental elections in the former red region prepared for Affaritaliani.it by the pollster Alessandro Amadori.
Let's see the numbers. If the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement are presented separately, as announced several times by Luigi Di Maio after the flop in Umbria, the League-led center-right wins with about 45% of the votes, followed by the center-left (Pd + others) with the 41 %, 5 Star at 12% and other parties / other lists at 2%.
If instead there was an enlarged alliance between Pd and M5S (plus others of the Center Left), at best for the deployment of the ruling majority parties, would come to a head to head 49 to 49 (2% of other parties or other lists).
In essence – according to Amadori's analysis – part of the M5S electorate, the anti-system, in the event of an alliance with the Pd would choose to vote for Lega or Fratelli d'Italia. That's why the game is getting really complex for the center-left.
"The institutionalization of the M5S, a hybrid between pro-government and anti-system forces, in an unnatural alliance with the Democratic Party would have the consequence that a part of the electorate would not recognize itself in the Movement, in fact the rib of the Dems" , explains Amadori. "A little what happened in Umbria, not to mention that there is not even a rooting in the territory since Pizzarotti left the M5S ". In short, in Emilia Romagna or Di Maio survives by going alone but wins the League or plays the game but further distorts the 5 Stars.
In the last ones European elections of 26 May in Emilia Romagna the League was the first party with 33.8%, followed closely by the Democratic Party with 31.2%. The 5 Star Movement is very far in third place with a 12.9% stoppage. Forza Italia had obtained 5.9% while the Brothers of Italy achieved 4.7%. 3.6% went to Piu Europa and 2.9% to the Greens. The Left 1.9% and the Communist Party 1.1%.