What was initially a distant hypothesis is now becoming an increasingly concrete and above all dangerous prediction for our southern regions. We already talked about it of the possible cyclone at the beginning of next week in the heart of the Mediterranean, and now we are here with a new update to investigate this situation.
The train of Atlantic perturbations that Italy is going through, with so many rains and even snow in the mountains, will continue its action until more than half a month. The climax of this phase disturbed in southern Italy is expected at the beginning of next week, in particular between Tuesday 12 and Wednesday 13: in these two days a large cyclone will be formed with high probability within the Mediterranean, with minimum baric that could clamorously move under the 985 hpa.
Cyclone arriving in the south, situation to be monitored
The cyclone will develop between Tunisia and the Sicilian Channel in the day of Monday 11, where it will deepen rapidly thanks to the very high thermal contrasts between the fresh North Atlantic air that will flow into North Africa and the hot air released from the Mediterranean. Monday will be Sicily and the Tyrrhenian coast up to Tuscany to deal with bad weather. Following this, a large part of the south will therefore have to deal with this formidable cyclonic vortex and its effects: strong winds from the sirocco will hit much of the central-south and later also the north-east (between Wednesday and Thursday) while the rains will be extended and very intense traits.
Very high risk of large V-shaped thunderstorms that from Sicily can be extended, on Tuesday, up Calabria, Basilicata and Puglia. These thunderstorms can release significant amounts of rain (even beyond 100 mm in a short time), numerous lightning and violent gusts of wind. Currently, according to the latest updates issued by mathematical models, the areas at greatest risk are the Eastern Sicily, central Calabria, the metapontino and all of central-southern Puglia. All this is expected in the single day of Tuesday 12.
On Wednesday the severe bad weather will extend to the center-north while it will gradually give up its hold in the south after a decidedly stormy 24 hours. The situation is still far from defined, so we invite you to follow us in the next editorials with more details.
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Edited by Raffaele Laricchia