Climate change, tile on Italy: from 2050 it will cost 8% of GDP



A new analysis methodology, which combines economic data with high spatial resolution climate data, estimates that from 2050, the domestic product has lost seven times more than in previous studies. The impact in the South was particularly heavy: inequality with the North is set to increase by 16% in 2050 and 61% in 2080

by Enrico Marro

Climate change, greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide. To whom do we blame?

3 'of reading

The Italian economy will be affected by climate change seven times greater than the estimates considered to date. This is what emerges from the report "The economic impacts of climate change in Italy", which constitutes the first part of the "Report on the status of the Green Economy 2019" presented in Rimini on the occasion of the eighth edition of the States General of the Green Economy.

The economic impact of climate change
The study investigates the economic consequences of climate change with particular attention to the Italian territory, adding to a revision of the most recent scientific studies new estimates based on the analysis of thousands of high-resolution data. Authors of the study are Massimo Tavoni and Francesco Bosello of the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and co-directors of RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, and Shouro Dasgupta, researcher at CMCC Ca ’Foscari.

"The most innovative part of the report concerns the new forecasts on the impact of climate change on the economy and on inequality in Italy," explains Massimo Tavoni, professor at the Milan Polytechnic. "According to our new estimates, the expected economic impacts for the second half of the century reach 8.5% of GDP loss in Italy. These estimates are much higher than the previous ones, which were at most 1 or 2% of GDP loss ".

Greater disparity between North and South
The climate of the future will not only slow down growth, but it will also increase existing economic inequalities. "The impacts will be more pronounced in Southern Italy – continues Tavoni – further accentuating the already existing North-South disparity: an increase in inequality of 16% in 2050 and 61% in 2080 is expected".


Impacts of temperature increase on economic performance by Italian province. % GDP per capita variations compared to current weather conditions – Source: Report on the status of the Green Economy 2019


The calculations of the team of scientists are based on an innovative methodology in the field of economic data analysis on climate change, applied for the first time to the Italian case: «The possibility of using socio-economic data on the grid for the macroeconomic analysis, ie for the analysis of aggregate economic performance indicators such as GDP, "explains Francesco Bosello, director of the Economic Analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy division of the CMCC Foundation and professor of economics at the State University of Milan.

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