A Salvini should lose in Emilia


As extravagant, illogical and (even) unnatural it may appear, it is probably true that Salvini should lose the elections in Emilia Romagna.

I am now trying to explain myself, introducing an observation (elementary) and three brief reasoning of perspective.

The finding is that in any case the leader of the League (and with him the coalition that follows him) is already almost certain to be the winner of the next regional round, for the simple fact that they will vote in two very different realities such as Emilia Romagna and Calabria with the second that sees the left split into two factions that are very difficult to match (for or against the outgoing governor, with the secretariat of the national Democratic Party that has already stated that there will be a new candidate) and the M5S oriented not to show up: so a sort of goal at the empty goal for the center-right (and in any case the situation is very serious in those parts, as evidenced by the fact that at 70 days from the vote no one has yet understood who the candidates will be).

In short, Salvini starts from 0-2 in 2015 and therefore 1-1 is already a huge step forward, with an additional increase in the regions passed from left to right in less than two years.

But then there are three deeper reasons, which relate (the first) to the political and institutional balances at two years (scarce) from the vote of 2018, the second to the international dimension and the third to the power spaces of (and in) the Republic.

So let's go in order, starting with the “context” in which we vote in January, a context that makes the “avalanche” effect of a defeat of Bonaccini evident, an effect that would quickly lead to the end of the yellow-red government (by the will of the Pd ) and almost certainly at the end of the legislature. Since, however, it passed a few weeks ago the reduction of parliamentarians (which must be completed with an appropriate electoral law) we would risk finding ourselves in a kind of "no-man's land", with a political balance that has now disappeared, a Parliament devoid of strength and representation and a institutional set up anything but ready for a new vote (unless a Parliament of 945 members is re-elected, thus materializing a substantial mockery of exclusive interest of the national political class, which would make false papers to recover those 345 blurred Parliament seats). All drowned in days of fiery controversy, because Salvini (and certainly Giorgia Meloni with him) would play a good game in taking all the opponents of the "vote immediately".

Then there is the international dimension, in which the leader of the League needs at least one to two years of work. It needs, that is, to tie the threads of relationships without which governing the EU country with the highest public debt is essentially impossible, it needs to understand who wins the American elections, it needs to understand what are the effects of the Russiagate of our house also in relations with Moscow (and more generally with Eastern Europe, because no one thinks of Putin as a subject lacking influence from those parts). The Italian right has chosen Le Pen in recent years: well this choice (which is not that of the right to rule in Poland, Austria, Greece or Hungary, just to name a few) makes dialogue with Paris and Berlin almost impossible (not talk about Frankfurt, headquarters of the ECB), a condition in which, however, everything can be done except governing the third largest economy in the continent.

Finally, there is a theme that relates to the subtle balance that balances the divisions of powers in democracy, a balance that provides (and encourages) the existence of a winner for political competitions, but does not recommend anyone to win big (Giorgetti also talks about this these days, if you read it between the lines). Why all this? It is simple, because if someone wins the balance they jump, with consequently difficult to govern.

Salvini has been very skilled in recent years, indeed the numbers are there to prove he was the best. His path can only lead him to Palazzo Chigi, because in this way (at a certain point and with a high probability) they will indicate the Italians. To win the war, however, it can also serve to lose a battle (specifically that of Emilia Romagna).

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