Thursday the last monetary committee of the president of the ECB. The indications of European companies for October and the confidence of American families arrive from the real world
of Marzia Redaelli
4 'of reading
The markets seem to have arrived at a turning point after having reached considerable peaks from the beginning of the year: the stock indices and the mood of investors fluctuate between the observation of a general economic slowdown and the expectations of a recovery. The central banks have returned to the field and are already doing "all that is necessary", as ECB President Mario Draghi said in 2012 in defense of the euro area under the siege of speculators. Now to restore oxygen to the markets it is necessary to solve them international tensions, war of duties and Brexit in the first place, and that the accommodating monetary policies are combined with tax policies adequate. Especially in Germany, the European locomotive, which has entered a modest recession, but has the most powerful spending power in European countries.
Waiting for the indications of European companies
Thursday 24 starts the spread of Markit's European Ihs Pmi indices, which are the result of a business survey manufacturing and services sectors and therefore are considered reliable indicators of production activity.
In September it was the German SMEs that disappointed because manufacturing has fallen to the 2009 level, well below the 50-point threshold that delimits a phase of expansion from that of contraction (41.7 points the manufacturing index, 51.4 the service index). Conversely, French SMEs had kept (50.1 manufacturing and 51.1 services), thanks to the more domestic orientation of the transalpine economy. The first reading in October (followed by a final figure) will also be disseminated for aggregate SMEs in the euro area, while for Italy the detail will arrive on 4 November.
"From the flash estimate of the SME indices of October – writes James Pomeroy, global economist of Hsbc – we expect that a bit of relief, in light of the hopes for an agreement between China and the United States and for a Brexit solution. Therefore, we expect a German manufacturing SME to 42.5 points and a marginal improvement in services to 51.5 points ".
It is true that the gap between real data (hard data) and surveys has expanded and the latter incorporate a good dose of pessimism. But the gap could close: «In aggregate – states Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia Capital Partners – the markets seem somewhat unprepared for a possible economic rebound, even if modest. Of course, investor consensus may be right, and macro deterioration may continue. But I think stabilization is more likely, because in recent months there have been many monetary stimuli at a global level (a series of rate cuts by various central banks followed by the resumption of purchase programs with the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve). As skepticism can circulate about the remaining effectiveness of monetary policies, denying them any effect seems risky to me ».