They project inflation of 55 percent this year and 4.3 percent for August


The Survey of Market Expectations (REM), a survey prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA) among consultants, financial institutions and foreign analysts, released yesterday, indicates that this year Argentina will close with a price increase of 55 percent, 15 points more than expected last month; August inflation will reach 4.3 percent and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will record a 2.5 percent drop in 2019.

But in addition, the relevant fact of this REM is that it does not contemplate the impact that the measures of greater control may have on the forex market announced on Sunday.

"For the year 2019, REM participants estimate general level inflation at 55.0 percent (15 percentage points more than the previous survey) and 57.6 percent at the core component (16.2 percentage points versus to July), "the monetary entity said this afternoon.

Meanwhile, for August, analysts estimated a monthly inflation of 4.3 percent, with a strong change in trend with respect to the disinflation process recorded between the months of May, June and July.

The official August issue will be announced by the National Statistics and Census Institute (Indec) on Thursday, September 12.

The rise of 4.3 percent forecast by specialists for August exceeds even the average variation recorded during the first seven months of the current year, of 3.3 percent monthly.

For September, REM participants projected a higher inflation rate than August, of 5.8 percent per month, a trend that would be cut from next October, when it would be 4.3 percent, in November it would be 3.5 percent and in December 3.1 percent.

Regarding the level of economic activity, the analysts who participated in the REM projected a 2.5 percent drop in real GDP, while by 2020 they estimated a 1.1 percent contraction.

Looking for dollars

The REM data were disseminated on a day in which the dollar closed almost stable at $ 58.49 in Buenos Aires for the sales of the Central Bank and public banks. While in Rosario, the currency was $ 59.

Yesterday the Central abandoned the auctions and intervened in the spot with direct sales to contain the dollar with $ 995 million. In addition, the Province and Nation banks also added their artillery, in a wheel in which the market tested, after Monday's holiday in the United States, the partial stocks.

Within that framework, the BCRA's reserves ended yesterday at US $ 52,149 million, according to the entity in its daily summary of financial variables. This fall, he argued, partially reflects the decision to make banks' position in foreign currency (dollars) more flexible so that branches have more liquidity to give savers if necessary, as indicated in communication "A" 6774 yesterday (see separate).

In the Nation Bank the dollar remained at $ 57 (in the electronic channel it was $ 56.95), in the Single and Foreign Exchange Market (Mulc), it fell to $ 55.98. The volume traded in the cash market was $ 426 million, while there were no transactions in the MAE futures segment. In exchange swaps, $ 65 million was agreed to take and / or place funds in pesos, through the use of buying and selling dollars for today and Thursday. In the futures market in Rosario (Rofex), $ 418 million were traded, 70 percent more than Monday. Shorter terms concentrated more than 60 percent of businesses. The final prices for the months of September and October ended up operating at $ 57.20 and $ 60.25.

Meanwhile, REM participants yesterday raised their projections on the monetary policy interest rate and for September they forecast an average of 80 percent, a level that was outdated since yesterday the Leliq rate rose 45 basis points and closed at 85,732 percent.

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