The difficulties associated with the stocks that the national government ordered do not stop arriving and begin to acquire large risk shares for the present and the future. In that sense, the gap that begins to be generated between the dollar spot or window and the cash against settlement (with “liqui”) creates serious risks for companies and provinces that need dollars.
About José Piñeiro Iñiguez, Master in Business from Harvard University (United States) and former Vice President of Citibank, spoke Friday with the program Primera Plana, which is broadcast on FM 89.3 Santa María de las Misiones.
The specialist referred to the situation of the provinces and companies in the face of the new capital control and also the latest disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Today what is being lived are the consequences of the measures taken. In economic terms, the only thing you can't escape is the consequences of the measures you take. ”, said Piñeiro Iñiguez.
“The stocks imposed on the dollar days ago began to have consequences in the real life of people and businesses. The day-to-day operation began to become much more complex, ”he analyzed.
When analyzing the consequences of the new stocks, he indicated that "What we began to see for companies is the impossibility of making certain payments."
In that group also included the provinces, such as the case of the City of Buenos Aires or Córdoba, "They have payments to make abroad as a result of commitments they took over time."
In this sense, Piñeiro Iñiguez explained that there are two cases: "On the one hand there are the companies that have the dollars in cash in Argentina and that they have to give those dollars to the agent bank that, in turn, abroad will pay a lot of bondholders." On the other hand, the "They have pesos and, with those pesos, they should buy dollars and deliver them to the agent banks to pay the commitments abroad." In both cases, he warned that "they realized now that this operation cannot be done".
Before this panorama, “The solution for the provinces and the companies is to go for the cash transaction against liquidation”, Indian.
“When this measure was implemented it was worth the same as the physical ticket. But, the market seeing this restricted dollar begins to take a gap in the cash with ‘liqui’ against the spot dollar that is in the banks window ”explained Piñeiro Iñiguez.
“That gap will grow over time. He was born with 5%, went to 10%, in the short term exceeded 20%, today – yesterday – closed at 74 pesos and perhaps for October or November we have a gap greater than 40%"He added.
“When you go every day, companies and provinces find that they have to buy a dollar that is no longer worth 58 pesos to pay the commitments, it will be worth 73 pesos or more, which is worth at the time of making the payment”, explained the economist.
The specialist made it clear that this does change the day-to-day life of companies or provinces. “These cost overruns that are forced to pay, return in the price of the products that the companies manufacture or return in taxes, in the case of the provinces”he warned.
“You see August inflation that was 4%, but it only reflects the stampede of a week and a half. The carryover for the following month is 3.5%. September is not going to go down by 5% and October cannot go down by 4.5%, at best ”continued.
Piñeiro Iñiguez stressed that "This scenario has nothing to do with the IMF disbursement."
On this issue, he warned that it is logical not to happen because “Nobody disburses you in these conditions of total uncertainty in the market. Today it is somewhat anecdotal 5.4 billion dollars in the context of Argentina ”, he asserted.
“Cash with‘ liqui ’is the only way a legal entity can access a really effective dollar for commercial or financial operations”he explained.
“That a gap was going to occur is logical. Anyone in the financial market knew that this would happen, ”said the economist.
"The gap is going to widen depending on the distrust of the market towards what is happening on a daily basis", he warned.
“The logical difference should be around 10%. If the situation were stable it would have remained. As Argentina presents more and more uncertainty and more incredibility of market operators, this gap is growing. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the gap will be 40% or 50%”Exclaimed Piñeiro Iñiguez.
If this situation occurs, "Would force the government to run the floor, the value of the dollar bill"he warned.
“When you leave that gap so high, the market automatically takes care of intermediating between the two dollars. Buy at the lowest to sell at the highest, ”he warned.
“The Central Bank would have to be regulating every day. You make a lot of money in that system of buying cheap and selling expensive, ” explained. "This is what is happening on a day-to-day basis and are consequences of the established stocks," he said.
About the problem
"This measure was taken due to the shortage of dollars that the Central Bank (BCRA) has and that was also given by the measures that the Government was taking and generated an extreme distrust in the operation"he alerted.
On this issue, he said that "there was a run against the peso and people were perceiving that the Central did not have enough dollars to meet the demand."
"Although they were responsible for ensuring that they did, it seems that it was not so and that is why this impromptu stocks were given"warned Piñeiro Iñiguez.
“This affects every legal entity. Companies and provinces cannot meet their obligations because access to the exchange market is absolutely forbidden, ”he said.
“The access they have is to go in cash with‘ liqui ’. The difference is that this alternative market is going to be worth much more and the obligations will be worth 20.30 or 40% more in dollars ”He reaffirmed.
Forward, the economist indicated that "if this continued in this way, the BCRA would have to be implementing more limitations to the operation of dollars."
"There are still few there are for the commitments you have to supply". explained.
"Two weeks ago There is a permanent drip of dollars that leave the Central. Either because people withdraw, because payments have to be made or because import commitments have to be met. The Central has exit but has no entrance, the drip is permanent, ”he continued.
In this context, Piñeiro Iñiguez explained that the flight of reserves was 1,000 million dollars a day two weeks ago and 400 million dollars later.
How much more does the economy work with the permanent dripping of dollars it has? He wondered.