Radio Habana Cuba | They estimate that the Chinese economy will grow 4.6% on average in the next decade


A report by the risk rating agency Standard & Poors (S&P) indicates that although this figure represents a slowdown in China's progress after "four golden decades of growth," the reasons for this are "natural and, in their most healthy. ”

So far this decade, the average progress of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been 7.8%, and every year since 2010 they have registered a lower growth than the previous minus 2017, when there was a slight rebound of 0.2 percentage points, notes HispanTV.

According to S&P, the main factors that will favor this trend will be demography – that is, the aging of the population -, deleveraging, the change of economic model from one oriented to manufacturing to another focused on services and, in summary, that the country It will be enriched, so there will be less room to grow.

Of course, the document warns that if the trade war that China has been with the United States since March 2018 is prolonged too much, the slowdown could become a “more difficult to control” phenomenon for the Beijing Government.

In the opinion of the chief S&P economist for the Asia-Pacific region, Shaun Roache, tensions with the US they could make Beijing bet on self-sufficiency, something that "would slow down the rate at which China achieves, creates and applies technology", so that productivity growth would fall, "the last accelerating rocket of the economy."

Given the possibility that the Chinese and US economies will disassociate as a result of the commercial conflict, Roache said that it would be a “painful process for all parties”, and that in China final consumers and business partners would end up paying for it.

The analyst believes that Beijing should "tolerate the slower growth resulting from structural factors and contain (apply) excessive stimuli" so that the slowdown is gradual.

In this regard, the Chinese official rhetoric has reiterated in recent years that the economic objective, apart from the aforementioned model change, is to move from rapid growth to a "high quality" one.

The Chinese economy performed somewhat better than expected in 2018 after expanding 6.6%, although for this year the forecasts of the authorities are placed on a fork that ranges from 6 to 6.5 percent.

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