what are the scenarios on the table?


Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend parliament for more than a month, from mid-September to 14 October, has outraged much of the United Kingdom. The opposition sees a maneuver to prevent members to block a Brexit without agreement, which the British government intends to implement if it does not find a compromise with the European Union on the conditions of the exit of the EU on 31 October.

Thursday, the opponents of a hard Brexit have thus triggered a judicial offensive, hoping to obtain the cancellation of the suspension of Parliament. Legal action has been launched in London, Edinburgh and Belfast on the legality of the Prime Minister's choice.

In Scotland, the suspension of the Parliament validated for the moment

The first court decision, initiated by a group of pro-European parliamentarians before the Edinburgh "Court of Session", was delivered on Friday. The highest Scottish civil authority has rejected a request to counter the suspension of Parliament decided by the British Prime Minister. This interim injunction, however, is yet to be confirmed at a substantive hearing on 6 September.

Another appeal on behalf of a North Irish human rights activist will also be heard in an emergency on Friday morning in the Northern Ireland High Court. A businesswoman, Gina Miller, has also filed an action in the English courts, hoping for a hearing in London next week.

However, many experts believe that these legal remedies are unlikely to succeed. In fact, Boris Johnson does not prevent members from debating Brexit, but simply reduces the length of time they can do so. If no judicial offensive succeeds, other strategies could however allow the anti-Brexit to block the suspension of the British Parliament announced by Boris Johnson.

A motion of censure?

For his part, Jeremy Corbyn, head of the Labor Party, the main opposition party in Parliament, warned that he would try as soon as the parliamentary return, Tuesday, September 3, to "legislate to avoid a 'no deal' and prevent Boris Johnson to close Parliament during this particularly crucial period. "

He is preparing a vote of no confidence against the government, which has only a slim majority of 320 seats against 319 for its opponents. The motion of censure of Jeremy Corbyn would only need a majority of one vote to pass. If that were the case, the opposition would have a few days before the suspension of parliament to form a government. The leaders of the six opposition parties represented in Parliament have condemned the "undemocratic" actions of Boris Johnson in a joint statement.

If he failed to form this government, Boris Johnson will remain in place and will have to win a vote of confidence within 14 days. If it did not succeed and the deputies did not agree on the choice of another prime minister, then legislative elections would be held.

Conversely, if an alternative government is formed, it will also have 14 days to win the trust of a majority of MPs. In case of failure, early parliamentary elections would be organized. However, there is no guarantee that they will be held before the October 31 deadline.

An emergency debate?

From the start of the parliamentary term, opponents of a "no deal" could ask the Speaker of the House of Commons for an urgent debate, using a procedure called Standing Order 24, as Labor MP Barry Gardiner announced.

This would allow them to take control of the parliamentary agenda and to table legislation requiring Boris Johnson to request a further postponement of Brexit, scheduled for 31 October. The President of the House, John Bercow, would no doubt welcome this procedure, which vigorously denounced the suspension of Parliament.

Vote Theresa May's agreement?

In order to avoid an exit without agreement, MEPs could finally approve the EU withdrawal deal negotiated by Theresa May, which they have already rejected three times. A new vote on the text is made possible by the opening of a new parliamentary session on 14 October.

On the side of public opinion anti-Brexit and opposed to the suspension of Parliament, anger does not seem in any case not ready to subside. On Wednesday, thousands of people demonstrated in London, Manchester, Edinburgh and other major cities, chanting slogans such as: "Stop the coup". More rallies are planned this weekend and Tuesday, for the return to parliament. A petition against the suspension of Parliament had also collected more than 1.6 million signatures this Friday. What predict a return of parliament particularly turbulent.

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