POINT MARKETS-Europe should open without much change, the trade effect is running out of steam (updated)

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  (Updated with index futures, Tokyo closing, market opening
bond in Europe)
    * Almost stability in sight in Europe
    * Hope on the trade falls back
    * Euro at a one-month low, German retail sales disappoint
    * Day loaded with indicators

    by Laetitia Volga
    PARIS, August 30 (Reuters) - Major European stock markets are expected without much
change Friday at the opening for the last session of the month, after enjoying the day before
a semblance of calm in the trade tensions between the United States and China.
    According to the futures contracts, the Paris CAC 40.FCHI could yield 0.05% at the opening,
the Dax in Frankfurt .GDAXI would take 0.19% and the FTSE in London .FTSE is expected to
the balance.
    Investors were reassured Thursday by statements from China, which expressed its
willingness to calmly resolve the trade dispute with the United States which weighs on
global markets for months. US President Donald Trump later said that
trade discussions had taken place during the day with China and that other
follow.
    These favorable statements for risky assets have contributed - with the end of the crisis
policy - the rise in bond yields and allowed
European countries to reach a new high of one month.
    "The ads are actually extremely innocuous (...) but they fall during a
dead period in terms of liquidity and market presence, which had an impact
excessive on the exchanges ", tempers the analysts of JPMorgan in a note with their customers.
    Friday's day is rich in indicators with sales figures in particular.
Germany, which fell more than expected last month, and inflation in the
euro zone but also, in the United States, household income and expenditure, which
includes the "core PCE" price index, an inflation measure closely monitored by the Reserve
Federal.
    
    VALUES TO FOLLOW:
    
    A WALL STREET
    The NYSE ended Thursday on a clear rise - its three major indices having taken
between 1.2% and 1.5% - mainly driven by the technology sector after reassuring signals
sent by China on trade. .NFR
    Business-sensitive sectors have logically supported the trend:
Apple AAPL.O gained 1.69% and Microsoft MSFT.O 1.89%. Industrial values, too
on the front line in the battle for trade, have also done well,
the image of Caterpillar CAT.N (+ 2.50%, the biggest rise in the Dow).
             
    IN ASIA
    In the wake of Wall Street, Asian markets are rising. The CSI 300 .CSI300
large-cap Chinese mainland takes 0.14% and Nikkei on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
 .N225 gained 1.19% after reaching a three-week high in the session.
    Industrial production in Japan rose more than expected in July, a sign
encouraging for the economy and manufacturers who are facing a slowdown in
global demand.

    RATE
    The 10-year US10YT = RR yield is almost unchanged, evolving around
1.5146%. It remains at a lower level than the two-year yield US2YT = RR and the "T-Bill" at
three months US3MT = RR, a curve reversal generally considered as a precursor
a downturn in the US economy into a recession.
    "The topic of discussion is always the inversion of the curve and whether the economy
American is headed for a recession (...) In short, the atmosphere is not so good, "said
Bart Wakabayashi at State Street.
    In early trade, the yield on the 10-year German loan is stable, at
-0.699%. DE10YT = RR
    
    EXCHANGE
    The dollar is also changing little and remains close to a one-month high against a basket of
reference currencies .DXY. The greenback grabs 0.12% against the yen JPY =, abandoned with the
return of appetite for risk. The Japanese currency, however, displays the best
percentage performance over the month among the major currencies, with a gain greater than
2%.
    "There are so many geopolitical risk factors, the Brexit, the tensions in Hong Kong
and the Middle East, not to mention the trade war. So we should expect this
that the yen climbs from time to time, "said Minori Uchida at MUFG Bank.
    The euro yields 0.17% against the dollar EUR =, to 1.1036 dollar, a low of one month, penalized
especially by signs of economic slowdown, particularly in Germany, where the latest
statistics showed a sharper than expected decline in retail sales last month.
  
    In France, inflation remained stable in August (+ 1.1% year-on-year), mainly due to
decelerating prices of manufactured goods and the slowdown in energy prices, and
tobacco, according to a first estimate published Friday by INSEE.
    Thursday, the future president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said
that the ECB should be ready to act in a difficult context and that it still has
room for maneuver to reduce interest rates. Sabine
Lautenschläger, a member of the Executive Board of the ECB, considers it premature to consider
plan of monetary support measures despite growing economic uncertainties.
 
    
    OIL
    Oil prices are down slightly after yesterday's gains: the contract
October on US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) CLc1 loses 0.95% to 56.17
dollars a barrel and Brent LCoC1 of the same maturity evolves below 61 dollars.
       
    MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AT THE AGENDA ON 30 AUGUST:
 COUNTRIES GMT INDICATOR PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
 EZ 09:00 Inflation August (flash) + 1% (over one year) + 1%
                Unemployment rate 7.5% 7.5%
 US 12:30 pm Household income July + 0.3% + 0.4%
                Household spending + 0.2%
                "Core PCE" price index + 0.2% + 0.2%
                - over one year - one year + 1.6% + 1.6%
         14:00 Michigan Confidence Index August 92.1 92.1
    MARKET SITUATION
    (Some data may show a slight shift)
    
  SCHOLARSHIPS
 ASIAN
 Indices Last Var. Var points. % YTD
 Nikkei-225 20704.37 +243.44 + 1.19% + 3.45%
  .N225
 Topix .TOPX 1511.86 +21.69 + 1.46% + 1.19%
 Hong Kong .HSI 25599.94 -103.56 -0.40% -0.95%
 Taiwan .TWII 10618.05 +155.62 + 1.49% -0.87%
 Seoul .KS11 1967.79 +34.38 + 1.78% -3.59%
 Singapore .STI 3095.59 +13.76 + 0.45% + 0.87%
 Shanghai .SSEC 2878.90 -12.02 -0.42% + 15.44%
 Sydney .AXJO 6604.20 +96.80 + 1.49% + 16.96%
 Closing in Tokyo: .TFR
                                                                                       
  WALL STREET
  Previous Closing:
 Indices Last Var. Var points. % YTD
 Dow Jones .DJI 26362.25 +326.15 + 1.25% + 13.01%
 S & P-500 .SPX 2924.58 +36.64 + 1.27% + 16.66%
 Nasdaq .IXIC 7973.39 +116.51 + 1.48% + 20.17%
 Nasdaq 100 7702.31 +114.42 + 1.51% + 21.68%
  NDX
                                                                                       
  Detail of the session on Wall Street: .NFR
 "The Day Ahead" - Update on the next session in Wall
 Street DAY / US
                                                                                       
  MARKETS
 EUROPEAN
 Futures on the CAC 40 0 ​​# FCE: and on the EuroStoxx50
  0 # STXE:
                                                                                       
  Values ​​to follow in Paris and Europe:
  WATCH / LFR
  The previous session:
 Indices Closing Var. Var points. % YTD
 Eurofirst 300 1482.45 +15.35 + 1.05% + 11.35%
  .FTEU3
 Eurostoxx 50 3411.33 +45.95 + 1.37% + 13.66%
  .STOXX50E
 CAC 40 .FCHI 5449.97 +81.17 + 1.51% + 15.20%
 Dax 30 .GDAXI 11838.88 + 137.76 + 1.18% + 12.12%
 FTSE .FTSE 7184.32 +69.61 + 0.98% + 6.78%
 SMI .SSMI 9838.48 +80.29 + 0.82% + 16.72%
                                                                                       
  EXCHANGE
                   Course Watch Var. % YTD
 Euro / Dlr EUR = 1.1035 1.1555 -0.18% -3.78%
 Dlr / Yen JPY = 106.38 106.50 -0.11% -3.52%
 Euro / Yen 117.42 117.75 -0.28% -6.97%
  EURJPY =
 Dlr / CHF CHF = 0.9877 0.9865 + 0.12% + 0.64%
 Euro / CHF 1.0901 1.0907 -0.06% -3.14%
  EURCHF =
 Stg / Dlr GBP = 1.2171 1.2188 -0.14% -4.59%
 Index $ .DXY 98.5630 98.5070 + 0.06% + 2.49%
                                                                                       
  RATE
                                 Last Var. Spread / Bund
                                                                 (Pts)
                                                                                       
 Bund 10 years DE10YT = RR -0,6930 +0,0000
 Bund 2 years -0,9080 -0,0060
  DE2YT = RR
 OAT 10 years -0.4132 +0.0020 +27.98
  FR10YT RR =
 Treasury 10 years US10YT = RR 1,5163 +0,0000
 Treasury 2 years US2YT = RR 1,5300 +0,0000
                                                                                       
                                                                                       
  OIL
 (in dollars) Price Previous Var Var.% YTD
 Light crude US 56.21 56.71 -0.50 -0.88% + 22.70%
  CLc1
 Brent LCOc1 60.71 61.08 -0.37 -0.61% + 12.11%
                                                                                       
 
    

 (Edited by Bertrand Boucey)
 
 



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