Without further release of Donald Trump on the front of the trade war, the fellows remained at the call of the calm of China; it was yesterday. The index picked up 2% in two days. + 2.88% over the week, one of his best weekly performances since the beginning of the year. In the end, with the end of the month on top speed, the Cac 40 lost only 0.7% in August.
The shares of the companies most related to China – the largest car market in the world in particular – are those that have risen the most this week.
Peugeot on the counter shows a gain of 7.5%, helped by the announcement of Beijing, Tuesday, a plan to support consumption, including automotive. + 3.3% for Renault on the week. More widely in Europe, the Stoxx manufacturers and equipment manufacturers increased by nearly 4%, with Faurecia in the spotlight (+ 10.4%). Just today, the equipment manufacturer, subsidiary of PSA Peugeot Citroën, climbed 3% while UBS raised its recommendation of "sale" to "neutral".
Consumer morale begins to crumble
In other sectors, the steelmaker ArcelorMittal, which sells very little in China but which depends heavily on the good health of the world economy (in this sense the appeasement of the trade war is good news), garners 7.2% on the week. + 5.3% for L'Oreal (more than a quarter of revenue is generated in Asia-Pacific), + 3.4% kering, owner of Gucci.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have turned into the red after picking a few fractions at the opening. A lot of caution before an extended weekend, the first Monday of September being a holiday for "Labor Day".
The latest statistics, including the second-quarter GDP data released yesterday, confirm that strong household consumption is the component that allows the US economy to resist in a global downturn. In July, according to figures released this afternoon, US household spending came out up 0.6% (+ 0.5% expected), although revenues grew less than expected (+ 0.1% ). "The cost of debt is falling rapidly, especially in the mortgage segment, to the point where renegotiation is on the rise.says Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo BHF. (…) Historically, an inflationary shock is needed to derail household spending. "
Be careful though for the future, even if the trade war weighs more on the morale of companies than on that of households. According to the index of the University of Michigan, the sentiment of American consumers has eroded in August (at 89.8, against 98.4), signing its largest decline since December 2012. That said, the index remains above its historical average.