Economic indicators. Waiting for the crisis … – Economy


A worried trader on Wall Street.
A worried trader on Wall Street. (AFP photo)

Slowing Chinese growth, contraction of the German economy, trade war, reversal of the American yield curve, the Brexit bill … All the indicators seem to announce the imminence of a recession.

When is the crisis? To hear the birds of misfortune, it will be for tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Let's say 2020 or 2021. Someday, whatever. From the Great Depression of the 1930s to the subprime, the chronicle of capitalism teaches that no one had alerted the tremors of 1929 or 2008. The characteristic of a crisis is that it occurs there and when it is not do not wait. A decade ago, the all-powerful central bankers of the US Federal Reserve (EDF), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan saw nothing. The big banks type Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase and other Lehman Brothers either, despite the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns. Ten years have passed. The world has not cured subprime, over-indebtedness became hyper, evils of Anglo-American capitalism. The real lessons have not been learned. The answer of the leaders was financial. Not political. Helpless in the face of the neoliberal order, Obama has not done much in the face of a Wall Street hostile to prudential regulation. Europe "has done better", imposing Basel 3 regulatory agreements on its banks. But there !

The machine derails

The implosion of the real estate bubble in the United States eventually overwhelmed everything. From financial, the crisis has become economic, social, then political. She has upset our world. And Donald Trump's tweets are not enough to justify decay at work. From the financial casino to the populist excesses, protectionist and unilateralism of a dominant male, his election was primarily revealing the uneasiness of the American empire. Brexit just as much, across the Channel. Today, gold shines on the markets, the excess of liquidity (the overflow of money) worries the fellows themselves. Investors are even willing to lose money for investments they deem safe, German or French Treasury bonds, in countries that do not risk bankruptcy … Add to this deposit banks ready to pay their customers who borrow. No doubt, the machine derails, negative interest rates being the absurd illustration of the evil when money no longer has value. The cycle born in 1944 at Bretton Woods is dying.

American slowdown

Commercial war forces, global growth drops to 3%. The reversal of the yield curve is fearing a slowdown in the United States, which is a big concern for a Trump in the saddle for 2020. China (and its + 6.2% of GDP) is fighting back on the foreign trade front. Also sick of its export model, Germany is shaking Europe. Salvini's Italy has a dump truck and still no growth. The bill of Brexit will be heavy for all. Supported by tax cuts, France Macron seems more valiant. Triumphant in 2009, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are in turmoil.

Overflow of cash

In summary, the mountain of billions of dollars and euros sprinkled in the economy by the Fed, then the ECB, to save traditional banks and citizen savings has certainly avoided a post-subprime global depression. But if it flooded the world with liquidity, consolidating the fortunes of a rich minority, the printing press did not revive the economy, dismantling Laffer economists' theory of runoff. Without investment, ambitious modernization and development plans, growth is slipping when 1.2 billion people lack access to clean water and energy. Public and private global debt is close to $ 250 trillion. In one year, from euphoria to anxiety. The stock market is freezing. The Amazon is burning. Argentina is failing. The crisis is already no longer what it was.

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